(Alright, at the risk of appearing to dumb down this journal, I'm going to say to heck with that and write about NFL football, which is something I love. If that seems incongruous with all the idealistic hand-wringing I tend to do here, well, anyone who knows me knows I'm a bundle of contradictions. That said, let's proceed.)

While not quite at the level of the 2004 season, which I consider to be an all-time classic, the 2005 season has been consistently intriguing and surprising. From the Colts' impressive run to the surprising emergence of teams like the Bengals and Bears--and failure of other promising teams--there's been plenty of drama and head-turning results each week. Some highlights, from my perspective:

The Colts' streak ends, problematically. The questions about whether the Colts should try for an undefeated season (I was for it) are off the table now. Many pundits have said that a loss could be the best thing for the Colts, to get the perfect-season pressure off them and help focus them on the Super Bowl. In my opinion, though, this week's loss was the worst possible thing for them.

Here's why. Perhaps the most troubling thing about the game itself for the Colts was how poorly they played. Specifically, right from the start the Chargers gave them a problem to solve--failing to protect Peyton Manning and to establish a running game--and for the whole length of the game, the Colts couldn't solve it. The Chargers played a smart, flexible game, but in a sense they did one thing to the Colts--kept Manning on the run and shut down runner Edgerrin James (holding him to a season-low 25 yards)--and were able to keep doing it all game long. That a team as smart and strategic as the Colts couldn't figure out how to compensate for this weakness has to be very troubling for them. The Chargers made them look very one-dimensional, and very vulnerable.

It also leaves them in a bad spot. On paper, of course, they're in immaculate shape. Home-field advantage sewn up, plenty of time to rest key players as needed. But after a punishing loss like this one, the team needs a solid, convincing win to get their collective psyche back into championship mode. Having this disappointing game be the end of Manning, Harrison, and James' regular season would be backing into the playoffs, for sure. With revitalized Patriots and Steelers teams surging and the Bengals looking as tough as ever, the Colts now can't afford to miss a beat. They need to make another statement.

But when? With two games left, time is running out. Next week they tackle the Seahawks, the NFC's best team and a plausible Super Bowl opponent. A convincing win there would be a huge boost for the Colts, but it would also give the Seahawks lots of good study material for a potential rematch in the big game. And the Seahawks' reasonably tough defense would put the Colts' offensive stars at risk. The following week, the Colts end their season in Arizona--a prime time to rest their starters, but also a good chance to practice before the playoffs. And no matter what, I think it's bad mojo to lose your last game. With the AFC tightening up quickly, the Colts can't afford to slack off. Forget the perfect season--now things get tough for the Colts.

That said, the Colts are still the team to beat, the best team in the NFL, and hats off to them for providing the season's most exciting storyline.

Being a Dallas Cowboys fan... can be a heartbreaking thing. Even in their most recent glory days of the mid-90s, they had a way of keeping you on the edge of your seat. And it was another tough Sunday for them, as their hopes of revenge against the Redskins fell about as resoundingly flat as possible in a 35-7 drubbing that was much worse than the score indicates. If the 'Skins were a better team, the score would have been worse, but what the score does indicate is that the 'Skins have the Cowboys completely figured out this season. It was like a continuation of the last 4 minutes of the two teams' meeting earlier in the season, when the Redskins suddenly began effortlessly slicing through the Cowboys' defense. Even though this loss may spell the end of the Cowboys' playoff hopes, it's a valuable lesson that this young team has some growing up to do.

But they'll need to do it quickly. Quarterback Drew Bledsoe is the real deal, someone with enough skill and poise to take the team far. But, as has been shown this year, the sure-fire way to beat the Cowboys is to break down the pocket and pressure him. Do that, and their offense collapses. The Redskins did that perfectly, sacking Bledsoe 7 times and grabbing 3 interceptions. Bledsoe has got plenty of good play left in him, but the veteran QB won't be around forever, and if the Cowboys' offensive line doesn't capitalize on his presence, they'll be left with the potential of the no-star-quarterback haze they've suffered through in recent years, with the eventual retirement of coach Bill Parcells looming not much further off.

Speaking of offensive lines... I've been noting this all season, and recently John Madden and Joe Theismann have been commenting on it too--the offensive line is the linchpin of an entire team's success. When it breaks down, no amount of talent at other positions can compensate for it. It's the foundation of all success--it allows a team to be diverse in its play calling, which opens up the opposing defense, and it allows a team to maintain possession of the ball for long stretches, which helps to keep your defense rested and puts more pressure on the opposing team to make something happen. There's a domino effect of good or bad things that come from a good or bad offensive line performance. Unsurprising, in a game based so much on strategy, but true: the least glamorous roles make the biggest difference.

Talent versus execution. This week was a week of statements made by several teams, and none more convincing than those games where inferior teams were dominant. Objectively speaking, the Chiefs are more talented than the Giants; the Colts better than the Chargers; the Cowboys better than the Redskins; the Cardinals better than the Texans. The amount of talent at key positions in those teams is simply superior. But, as the cliche goes, that's why they play the game, and this array of not-quite-as-good teams showed that a good game plan and good execution will win on almost any day. The Chiefs played a sloppy game on both sides of the ball and, apart from Tiki Barber's fantastic running, allowed the Giants to turn middling performances into a decisive win. The Chargers left the Colts looking painfully flat. The Redskins' game plan beat the Cowboys in every phase of the game. This week was a strong reminder that planning and playing well as a team is more important than any star player to achieving victory.

The most entertaining game of the week was: the Bears vs. the Falcons. It wasn't the highest-scoring or most surprising game of the week, but it was amazing to watch the Bears' defense completely suffocate the Falcons. They're so fast, so well-organized, so alert; to watch how thoroughly and skillfully they dominate is to see an ideal for how defense should be played in football. They hammered the line, forcing Michael Vick on the move and then, where most teams lose track of him, they met him every step of the way for speed and maneuverability. It seemed that whenever an opening might arise, whenever an opportunity came up, there were two or three (or more) Bears there to snatch it from the Falcons. In its way, it was just as lovely a sight as any big offensive day for Manning & Harrison.

And on top of that, coach Lovie Smith (who further reinforced his case for being named coach of the year) looked like a genius when he brought in quarterback Rex Grossman and the Bears' offense, their weakness all year long, suddenly lit up and reinvented itself right before your eyes. All of a sudden they were a poised, relaxed, capable offensive team, and if they can maintain that into the playoffs, they become serious Super Bowl contenders. There's still no truly dominant team in the NFC, and no defense there that can match the Bears. This is going to be interesting.

My predictions for week 16:

Walks:
New England over NY Jets
Cincinnati over Buffalo
Jacksonville over Houston
Pittsburgh over Cleveland
Denver over Oakland
Chicago over Green Bay

Close ones:
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Washington over NY Giants
Carolina over Dallas (I'll be rooting for the Cowboys, though)
St. Louis over San Francisco
Philadelphia over Arizona
Indianapolis over Seattle (if Indy plays all of its stars)

Could go either way:
Baltimore over Minnesota
San Diego over Kansas City (who wants it more)
Detroit over New Orleans
Miami over Tennessee

Labels: Sport