For the most part, there are only three sports I care about and keep up with: NFL football, pro tennis, and international soccer. The latter can be especially captivating, as World Cups are great opportunities to see a true world contest where distinct national styles counter each other, as opposed to most sports in which the teams are all variations on the same theme.

This year's Women's World Cup soccer tournament was no exception. Catching as many matches as I could spare the time for (on tape, due to the time difference with host nation China), I really enjoyed what I saw. The women's came has come a long way toward parity, with the days of unquestioned U.S. dominance long gone. And in contrast to the men's game, which can at times be frustratingly defense-heavy--with many matches consisting mostly of lots of quickly-scuttled attempts to move the ball a little--the woman's game seems crisper, with the element of surprise intact. Sometimes, that can mean poor play--I saw many own goals and some absurdly lopsided scores--but a lot of the time it just means an action-packed match.

For the last several Cups, I've followed and been enthused about the U.S. women's team. That was true in this tournament, too; despite their generally lackluster play and the dismal coaching of Greg Ryan, I was still pulling for them. That is, sadly, until their semifinal match against Brazil.

By now the story's familiar, having been beamed all over the news: Ryan benched starting goalkeeper Hope Solo just before the match in favor of 36-year-old veteran Brianna Scurry, claiming her quick reflexes and experience against Brazil would be the best thing for the team. From there, things began to go wring quickly, with controversy erupting, the team being dominated by Brazil, and then an embarrassing and awkward situation where Solo spoke out against the coach (and, many claimed, Scurry) and was essentially exiled for the rest of the tournament, even being prevented from housing or eating with the team she'd helped carry through the tournament.

Having followed the team in the tournament to this point, I was at first miffed at the coach for his ongoing baffling moves (which previously included playing leading starters for too long and ignoring his young bench) and the decision to exile Solo.

But with a few days' perspective on the issue, my focus has shifted a bit. Ryan looks like a bad coach, plan and simple--he made bad choices, everyone knows it, and that's that.

What's still troubling me, though, is how the team handled the situation. Ryan defended his leaving Solo out of the team's final match (the third-place contest against Norway) by resorting to vague statements about going with the 20 players who stood together during the difficult times. This strikes me as something of a cou-out, as none of those 20 players had their starting positions taken away just before the biggest game of the tournament. Sticking together is easy, and no achievement, when you're not dealing with that.

But the problem is, they didn't stick together. They abandoned their teammate. They ditched the keeper who'd been compensating for their struggling, low-scoring offense throughout the tournament. Rather than work through the difficulties, they seemed to turn into a junior-high-clique and played the ignoring game with their teammate, who incidentally had just lost her father earlier in the summer.

By all accounts so far, this decision was engineered by Ryan along with senior team members Kristine Lilly and Scurry. Word is that the team was split between six older players and 12 younger players over how to handle Solo, with the younger players in support of her. But, with the Olympics next year and starting positions in the hands of the coach and senior members, it's not hard to guess how difficult any dissent would be.

So whether you support or decry Solo's right to be critical of her coach and imply criticism of a teammate (words which, incidentally, almost exactly mirror words spoken by Scurry a few years ago about her own predecessor), it's appalling how quickly and completely she was frozen out--how immature and petty that seems, how insecure that makes all the other players look. It couldn't have been summed up better than by the embarrassing words of leading team scorer Abby Wambach--"I'd like to think I'd like to forgive her." How sad.

The other aspect of this that's bothering me is how strongly Solo was attacked by many people for her remarks. Everyone understands the concepts of teamwork and the importance of supporting each other. But everyone breaks down from time to time--everyone gets emotional and says something they don't mean. Can we expect an emotional, competitive, and mourning 26-year-old to be perfect? Of course not. And we can be constructively critical of her statements without being hateful and derogatory toward her. The outcry over her statements reminds me a lot of the irrationally defensive reactions I often see directed at anyone who criticizes the Iraq war or the president--a sort of mob-rule where dissent is shouted down. And the critique has been much sharper in her case than in comparable cases involving male athletes (such as this week's story of an NFL player who, after a loss, claimed his teammates have "no heart"--what's that, you haven't heard about it? Exactly. And he hasn't been cut from the team, either.)

In my opinion, the solution is simple: the team should move away from its senior players immediately, and focus on the youth of this team and the up-and-comers in the college system. Go with Lindsay Tarpley and Natasha Kai upfront, exciting players who can make things happen. Go with Solo or one of the promising college goalkeepers out there. Sever ties with anyone from the last couple U.S. World Cup teams. Find a qualified, progressive woman coach with no connection to the last generation of U.S. national players. And then give it everything you've got.

The current in-between, starry-eyed-nostalgia approach seems to be killing this team, and perhaps worse still, splitting their own country over whether to support them or be disgusted by them. Women's soccer in the U.S. is at a crucial turning point; it can't afford to poison itself, and if this keeps up, that's exactly what it will do. I've been a fan of this team for many years, but I feel on the verge of moving on and not supporting them, and that's not what I want.

To end on a positive note, however, I'll just briefly say what a great ending to the tournament the final was. Germany vs. Brazil was everything it should have been, with the Brazilians showing off their grace and fire, but the greater experience and team strategy of the Germans winning out in the end. The Brazilians' individual play was creative and delightful, but you could see the frustration growing on their faces as the Germans' patient, organized approach gradually disrupted the Brazilians' flow and avoided playing to their strengths. In the end, it was the same result we've seen on the men's side, with Brazil's "beautiful game" falling just a bit short of teams with better group discipline. But there's so much talent and youth on that team, I'd be surprised if they don't win the next one.

Labels: Sport

I haven't written as much about football this year as before, and that's partially because I've watched a lot less of it this season, due to being distracted by other things. I regret that to an extent, but have tuned back in in time to catch the last part of the season and playoffs. And while not on par with the classic seasons of the previous couple years, it's been interesting.

This week, the division playoffs set the stage for next week's "final four", which should be a doozy of a weekend. In the NFC, the expected contenders came out on top, while in the AFC, the expected changing of the guard was put down in dramatic fashion.

Indianapolis 15, Baltimore 6
I hadn't seen much of the Ravens this year, but had heard all the hype. While it's hard to argue with the number-one defense in the league, I had a feeling this game would go this way. I felt that the Colts simply have too much exceptional capability, and that it would find a way to overcome the opposition. I was really impressed with the Colts' defense last week against the hapless Chiefs. They weren't so much pushing Kansas City around as they were outsmarting them, playing in just the right way. And that seems to be what this team has changed into this year. Their stats are down, they're scoring much less, Payton Manning's had a mundane year, but they're finding a way--they're doing whatever it takes to win. This game is a great example--Manning had no touchdowns and 2 interceptions, yet they win. On both sides of the ball, they've become more resourceful and more responsive to adversity. So despite stumbling late in the season, they're suddenly looking very hard to beat.

New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24
For all the talk of the miraculous Saints, I found myself rooting for Philadelphia in this game. Unlike division-mates such as the pathetic Cowboys and self-destructive Giants, the Eagles have been playing the kind of football you can get behind: tough, disciplined, scrappy, and clever. Oft-maligned backup quarterback Jeff Garcia saved the season for the team and came close to winning here, but the Saints just slipped out of reach. These two teams are probably the only ones left in the NFC who really deserve to be here--on merit alone, this should have been the conference championship game. The Saints worked hard and got some lucky breaks, and are playing a dynamic, fun style of football that should send them into the Super Bowl.

Chicago 27, Seattle 24
Chicago played a pretty good game, but I still think they're much worse than their record and their playoff position. All they really had to do to get home-field advantage in the troubled NFC was win the weakest division in the NFL. They've been spotty on offense, they backed into the playoffs with some embarrassing late-season games, and their only obstacle to the conference championship game was the injury-riddled Seahawks. I've had low expectations for Seattle, but have been impressed with how they've stepped up in the playoffs.

They made me groan, however, with what looked to me like a series of bad play calls late in the game that, in my opinion, handed the game to Chicago. Late in regulation, they were moving the ball and threatening to get into field-goal range for what would likely be a game-winning kick. Then, in one series of downs, it all fell apart. First, after a great first down, they let time roll off the clock and instead of calling a time out, when they had some to spare, they spike the ball and lose a down. Needing less than 10 yards to get into field-goal range, they take a long pass downfield on the next play, which fell incomplete. Why they did this baffles me--time's running out, all they need is a field goal, and they're needlessly shooting for the end zone. That leaves them with 3rd and 10, out of field goal range. Next, a bobbled snap by quarterback Matt Hasselbeck results in a loss of yardage, leaving them with 4th and 19, on which they fail to convert. To me this sequence sabotaged the game for them. They were playing like a team that needed to get into the end zone, when all they needed to do was pick up 10 yards. They could have run and thrown a couple short passes, but instead they squandered a down with a spike, overreached by going long downfield, and then muffed a couple plays. All I could think was, "those damned Bears get lucky again", and they did.

New England 24, San Diego 21
If any game was supposed to represent a changing of the guard, this was it. The multi-Super Bowl champion Patriots, aging and depleted in key positions, were set to hand the mantle over to the surging Chargers--winners of 10 games in a row, best record in the NFL, playing at home, with record-breaking MVP running back LaDainian Tomlinson. One of the brilliant things about the Patriots has always been how well they're able to figure out the other team, and then take them apart. I knew they'd be able to figure out San Diego, but wasn't sure if they still had the talent in key positions to pull it off. That's been their challenge this season. And for a lot of the game, it looked like they were a step behind the Chargers. But somehow, they managed to hang close, and the Chargers never really took off. This was a game the Chargers needed to not be close, because to leave the door open for the Patriots is disastrous. San Diego now has 8 months to ponder that lesson.

Predictions for next week:

New Orleans at Chicago
This should be quite a game. If Chicago's inconsistent QB Rex Grossman doesn't play well, this will be over quickly--the Bears' defense will not win this alone. If he does play well, it could be interesting. The Saints have some great offensive weapons, but this weekend the Eagles exposed some weaknesses that the Bears will try to exploit (look for how many times the Saints' new star Reggie Bush is taken down in the backfield, before he can break out, as a measure of their success). Overall I see this one going a similar way to the Colts-Ravens matchup (albeit with more scoring)--in the end, the Saints will have too many weapons for the Bears defense to handle, and their capability to create big plays will be the difference. The Bears are a good team, but not a great one, and their luck runs out here.

New England at Indianapolis
Who'd have thought that with the super-defensive Ravens and super-offensive Chargers standing in the way, we'd see this classic matchup again. But somehow this just feels like the right two teams to be left playing. This one is really hard for me to call. I still feel like the Colts have figured something out that gives them the edge on any given day, but Payton Manning cannot make the kinds of errors he's been making the last few weeks. The one advantage of his mundane play is how the rest of his team has stepped up to fill in the gap--that will be required here, too.

Since they did exactly what they needed to to ground the Chargers, it's also hard to pick against the Patriots--the Colts haven't been paying as well as the Chargers, and the Pats will have some great momentum and can-do belief coming in here. Home field favors the Colts, but it won't suffice in this game. If Manning has a good day and doesn't turn the ball over, the Colts will win--it'll be just a little too much for the Pats to handle. If he struggles, the Pats will ultimately have the edge by being able to keep it close and win on strategy. One interesting wrinkle this time around is kicker Adam Vinatieri, who won many close games for the Patriots but who's now with the Colts. Something tells me this will be a close one that may come down to his foot again.

My brain says the Patriots will win, but my heart is saying the Colts have what it takes this time.

Labels: Sport

I've thought about writing about the NFL a few times this season, but have thought better of making prognostications in what has been, up to this point, an often confounding season. All along I've been skeptical of prevailing wisdom--remember all the pre-season claims that Carolina and Cincinnati were Superbowl favorites?--and have chosen instead to observe this unusual and hard-fought first few months.

But when your favorite team rises to its potential and beats the last unbeaten team in the league, that's as good a time as any to come out and start making some statements.

That, of course, refers to the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys taking out the high-flying 9-0 Indianapolis Colts. It's not a significant loss for the Colts--it's probably just as well to get their minds off the idea of an unbeaten season--but it's a very significant win for the Cowboys. In terms of raw numbers, it keeps them in the playoff hunt and lines up a possible division title if they can remain consistent.

To my eyes, though, the most significant thing about it is how well they seem to be functioning as a team at this stage. They've dealt with a lot of maddening chaos this year, including inexplicable breakdowns that resulted in needless losses, inconsistent performance from previous quarterback Bledsoe, major trouble with penalties, and dropped passes by star receiver Terrell Owens. No matter how much talent they have or how well they were playing in a given moment, they seemed vulnerable, ready to mess it all up. More than once this year I've been ready to declare them the rising stars, only to have an "ah, #$@%" moment as they lose another winnable game in cringe-inducing fashion.

And that's how they started this game, committing some bad turnovers and missing key opportunities to score. It looked like another mistake-prone, stumbling loss might be at hand. A sequence in the second quarter, when they failed to capitalize on good field position by not scoring a touchdown, then missed a simple field goal, then piled up a few costly penalties on the following Colts drive, seemed to herald the all-too-familiar Cowboys collapse.

But a funny thing happened in this game--instead of getting worse, they got better. They tightened up, the turnovers stopped, the penalties fell off, and they started digging in on defense. When, in the second half, they stopped the Colts and then scored a touchdown of their own to finally pull ahead, the transformation was complete. Quarterback Tony Romo was sharp and capable, the running game was good at all the right times, Terrell Owens was making key catches and key blocks as well, and the defense was disrupting the flow of Peyton Manning's 'no-panic' offense.

If this season has taught us anything, it's that any one game is no predictor of what's to come. But for the first time this season, the Cowboys seem to have a lineup that is one solid unit across the board (aside from kicker Vanderjagt's appalling performance) and which is improving by leaps and bounds. The Cowboys have a very winnable game on Thanksgiving and then play the injury-hobbled Giants the following week, and if they live up to their potential, they'll be 8-4 and solid playoff contenders. After all the media circus they've endured this year, I'm happy for them for their success, teamwork, and resolve. Hope they can keep it going.

Now, for a few of those unwise prognostications. Teams with great records are certainly emerging in both conferences. The Colts, Chargers, Broncos, Ravens, Patriots, and Bears are all obviously the real deal. In the AFC, the Chargers have been especially impressive--despite some shaky defense, they've shown that they can do whatever it takes to win, and they're looking better each game. The Colts, by a hair, are probably still the best team going, but the Cowboys figured them out this week, and if they don't find a way to solve that, then they could quickly find themselves playing catchup to San Diego or Baltimore. The Broncos are a great team, but after a great start tonight they looked flummoxed against the energetic Chargers. They and the Colts need to start winning some games definitively, so they can enter the playoffs with some momentum--failing to do that has really hurt both of those teams in recent years. The Ravens have a great record, but I'm not ready to get behind them until they get more consistent on offense.

As for the NFC, call me crazy, but I'm just not sold on the Bears yet. They've had an easy schedule, which has beefed up their stats on both sides of the ball and helped hide their issues on offense. They've only beaten two teams with winning records this year, and both of them--Seattle and the NY Giants--were hobbled by injuries at key positions. The rest of their wins have been against much weaker teams, and aside from next week's game against New England, the remainder of their schedule is pretty easy, so expect them to get home field advantage and lots of hype. But I also expect them to lose in the playoffs.

To who? Well, I guess it's time for some especially irresponsible predictions--who, with 6 games still left to play, I see emerging. It's hard to make firm predictions this year, because injuries have been such a huge issue for almost all teams--take today, when Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb received a crazily freakish season-ending injury on what looked like a routine play, ruining their chances for making the playoffs. While it's tempting to go with the safe choices of the strongest defensive teams--say, Baltimore, Chicago, and Denver--my gut's pointing me into riskier territory.

Specifically, my early-early Superbowl prediction is: San Diego vs. Dallas. That's right, Dallas. The key to the Chargers' success will be their health--they've got a pretty beat-up defense right now, and if they don't get some of those key players back or they lose more of them, then they could be in big trouble. But if they can hold the line on that side of the ball, their offense can beat anyone. The Broncos, Colts, and Patriots all look in danger of late-season identity crises, and the Ravens are flying high in a surprisingly weak division but are still a bit untested. All those teams will be strong contenders, but San Diego's got something special at the moment.

In the NFC, the playoff picture aside from the Bears is pretty muddled. The list of teams who might make it in is too long to list here, but many who are contenders by the numbers aren't going to cut it. Right now the Cowboys have an average record, but it's deceptive--they started the year with lots of chaos, including a new star receiver who wasn't used to their system, and then switched quarterbacks just a few games ago. Not to mention that they have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year. But they're also one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, with one of the best defenses. They're healthy at all key positions, they have great rhythm in their passing game, a solid run game, and lots of playmakers who can make things happen in a game. They've beaten better teams than the Bears have, and will have done more of that if they make it to the playoffs.

In short, I think they're a stealth team that is much better than their record, and they're finally starting to play like it and believe in it. And if they can get into the playoffs, they'll have good momentum, good skill across the board, and a coach with lots of postseason experience. The Bears, though an excellent team, aren't as good as their record, have inconsistency in their offense, and lack experience. Other NFC contenders, like Carolina, Seattle, and New Orleans, are as yet unproven and still have questions. And the Giants are a mess right now with all their injuries. If they can heal up quickly, I'd put them ahead of the Bears as well.

That's enough verbiage on pro football for now. From silent observer to foolhardy predictor in one day--we'll see if all that observing pays off. In this crazy season, there's no telling.

Labels: Sport

An exciting day today, for better and for worse, and worth a standalone post.

Australia 3, Japan 1
Australia has had a drought of over 30 years since its last World Cup appearance, and had yet to score a goal in World Cup play. For the vast majority of today's match, it looked like that string would continue. But, feeling a connection to the team, I hung in and rooted for them.

The match, overall, was pretty ugly. A lot of the first half was marred by poor officiating, including a ludicrous missed call that resulted in a goal for Japan that shouldn't have counted. Australia, who'd been pushing fairly hard up to that point, seemed pretty deflated for some time afterward.

Another ugly sight was the display of overacting put on by the Japanese team. Falling to the turf and writhing in agony at the slightest bump, Japan's players took dive after dive, prompting a few unearned fouls to be called on the Aussies. One could cynically call this a savvy response to Australia's rough, physical style of play, but it's pretty pathetic to watch and it brought back memories of previous Cups where taking dives was more of a problem. Japan demonstrated some good ability and exciting strikes; to resort to (and get away with) their acting was pretty cheap.

The result was, for most of the match, a demoralized Aussie team that seemed to slow down a bit and lose their ability to make things happen near the goal. Japan seemed in control, and with the clock winding down to the last few minutes of the match, there didn't seem to be much reason for hope.

Then lighting struck. Three times.

From seemingly out of nowhere, Tim Cahill drove in a goal, then another one five minutes later. What seemed like a sure loss, then a damned lucky escape with a draw, suddenly became a victory. Then John Aliosi knocked in the Socceroos' third goal in 8 minutes, and the ending officially became astounding. Good on ya, mates!

Next up for the Australians is Brazil, who will probably defeat them, but if they can beat or tie Croatia, they have a very real chance of advancing out of the first stage. I've got my fingers crossed.

Czech Republic 3, U.S.A. 0
Oh, dear. Oh, my. Ouch.

Not much more can be said about what was a thoroughly disastrous match for the U.S. team. I was pretty excited about their chances going in, and was looking forward to their very athletic team playing a tough match against the somewhat injury-hobbled Czechs.

But five minutes into the match, it was over. Before the match, much had been made of the matchup between towering Czech striker Jan Koller and almost-as-big U.S. defender Oguchi Onyewu. But that debate ended with a thud as Koller slipped right by Onyewu and Eddie Pope to head in a goal before the U.S. had even gotten started.

The U.S. never seemed to recover after that. Tomas Rosicky added two more goals for the Czechs, one coming off another misstep by Onyewu, who cleared a Czech goal shot right back into play, setting up Rosicky's blast.

The score doesn't really convey how thoroughly the U.S. team was clobbered. They were beaten in every phase of the game, for the whole game. The powerful Czech team was like a great curtain sweeping back and forth across the field, their defense dragging the Americans away from the goal, their offense leaving the Americans chasing after them. They choked off the midfield, suffocated the U.S. attack, and broke up the sluggish U.S. defense.

The one bright spot I could see was the quick, dynamic play of U.S. substitute Eddie Johnson, who created some nice scoring chances and added needed energy late in the match. But for the most part, the U.S. team was humbled. Stars Landon Donovan and Brian McBride were shut down, and keeper Kasey Keller and midfielder DaMarcus Beasley were both uninspired or worse.

So, with all that, what hope is there for the U.S. team? Lucky for them, they lost to the best team in their group, so this is not such an unexpected result. Unluckily, they're facing powerful Italy next. They still have a chance to advance if they can at least tie Italy, but realistically, their chances in this tournament come down to one simple goal: they must beat Italy. And, most likely, defeat Ghana as well, because losing 3-0 today doesn't set them up well for a tiebreaker based on goals scored. Both of those victories are possible--the U.S. is athletic, healthy, and deep with talent. But they're in disarray right now, and we'll find out on Saturday if they can turn this thing around.

As for the Czechs, theirs was hands-down the best performance I've seen yet in the tournament. If they can stay healthy, they look like serious contenders for the final.

Labels: Sport

Well, it's that time again, my favorite month of sports--the World Cup.

This'll be the fourth one I've watched--I first got hooked when it was played in the U.S., when I was living below that Brazilian family in '94. I watched part of the '98 tourny in France from a couch in Mississippi. I still remember seeing the tough German defense fall before Brazil in '02, and now this. I'll be spending an entirely unreasonable amount of time following matches over the next month until the final on July 9.

Here are my thoughts on a few highlights from the first weekend of play.

Germany 4, Costa Rica 2
Of all the teams I've seen this weekend, Germany's impressed me the most. Perhaps stung by their loss to super-offensive Brazil in the last Cup, this new team was all aggressive offense, moving fast and pushing the ball hard. While they don't have the individual ball-handling skills of a South American team, collectively they're very effective, working cooperatively to create a lot of great angles and set up strikes.

Costa Rica didn't look so good, and the fact that they scored two goals shows the potential weakness of this German team--a sometimes-loose defensive back line. Their new keeper didn't distinguish himself, and a dangerous offense-based team like Brazil or Argentina could pull their new game style apart if the German midfield would have to pull back to help defend. How strongly they handle Poland later this week will be telling.

Argentina 2, Ivory Coast 1
This was a really interesting match--two very colorful teams who are both quite dangerous. I was very impressed by Ivory Coast--they displayed some of the best movement I've seen yet, pushing the ball across the field and creating some great scoring opportunities. Unfortunately, that's where they broke down--their shots on goal were haphazard, off-target, and generally unfocused and uncoordinated. Time and again they'd push right through the Argentines and then send a shot harmlessly wide.

Argentina, on the other hand, played almost stereotypical South American soccer--a style of play that almost seems lazy or passive, but which strikes like lightning at surprise moments. They seemed sluggish compared to Ivory Coast for a lot of the match, and had the ball for a lot less of the time, but their setup kicks and goal shots were scarily hard, fast, and on-target. They displayed some overall and defensive weakness in this match, but their offense will make them a real threat against anyone.

Mexico 3, Iran 1
Another interesting, dynamic match. These two teams seem to have a pretty similar style of play--tough, scrappy, physical, fighting for the ball and keeping each other on the run. In this case, Mexico was simply more aggressive and better organized near the goal, setting up some great goal shots. They seemed to have some problems effectively clearing out the ball after Iranian goal shots, and this could cause trouble if they don't tighten it up a bit. Iran looked workmanlike and not much more, but Mexico looked intense enough to be a potential threat into the later stages of the tournament.

The rest of this week should provide some terrific matches, including the debuts of the U.S., Brazil, Australia, France, and Italy--all potentially tough teams who I'll be intrigued to see.

Labels: Sport

An unlikely tear through the rest of the NFL's elite ended in an unusually messy victory for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who overcame their own mistakes to grind out a 21-10 win over the equally inconsistent Seattle Seahawks. The difference, as I had a feeling it might be, was the strength of Pittsburgh's key play-makers.

What I didn't expect was the amount of mistakes made by both teams. Dominant, poised, and consistent throughout the playoffs, the two teams showed their Super Bowl-rookie status tonight, as neither team ever seemed comfortable in the glaring light of this big game. Of the two, it was Pittsburgh who managed the most big plays--notably a record-setting 75-yard run by Willie Parker and a trick-play TD throw from receiver Antwaan Randle El to fellow receiver Hines Ward. But much of the game was dominated by stumbling offense, 3-and-out ball which seemed as much a product of simple mistakes as good defense.

Despite the lopsided score, Seattle played well in many situations, and was a credible threat throughout most of the game. After the dust settles, that might be one of the most interesting takeaways from this game--that despite the AFC's superior overall quality, the best of the NFC is capable of going toe-to-toe with them. Seattle made a truly perplexing number of mistakes tonight, especially considering that the Pittsburgh defensive secondary didn't seem to be doing anything exceptional. They leave this game in perhaps the most frustrating state--knowing that they were good enough to win, but repeatedly sputtered and stalled at the key moments.

Kudos to the Steelers--I was happy to see them win, and in this post-season having fought their way past Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver, and now Seattle, they've truly earned the distinction of being the best team in all of football this year. It's a satisfying end to many storylines for them, and with any luck they'll be back to make things interesting next year.

Oh, and the commercials all sucked. The only exceptions being the one with the little Clydesdale and the Benny Hill-themed cell phone ad. The former was cloying but sweet, and the latter must have been completely nonsensical for anyone, well, younger than me.

Labels: Sport

Here's my recap of this week's division playoffs and a look ahead to the following week and the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh 21, Indianapolis 18

There will not, there *cannot* be a more hair-raising NFL game this season than today's razor-thin victory by the Steelers over the Colts. At the very end of the game, heartbreak shifted from one sideline--when it looked as though a goal-line fumble might be the last play of Jerome Bettis' NFL career--to the other side, as ultra-accurate Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt hooked a last-minute, potentially game-tying field goal wide right.

For all the remarkable, gutsy playing from both teams, in my opinion it was the Steelers who both took control of the game and almost gave it away near the end. They took control of the game on offense by opening things up right off the bat, relying on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to carry the team downfield, and he responded with great, accurate throws. This was incredibly smart on the part of the Steelers--they must have known that they wouldn't be able to keep up with the Colts if they tried to set a slow, grinding tempo right out of the gate, so they did the exact opposite--they took the Colts own high-flying style right back at them. By streaking out to a 14-0 lead early in the game, they put a sense of urgency on the Colts that never wore off, forcing them out of the calm, controlled style where they're most comfortable.

They also took control of the game right away on defense, playing a hard, aggressive style which put Manning under pressure and kept the Colts' offense from developing any rhythm. They must have anticipated a bit of rustiness on the part of the Colts, who'd gone about a month without a meaningful game, and took advantage perfectly. The combination of a pass-oriented initial attack and rhythm-disrupting defense completely stymied the Colts and prevented them from stringing any consistent play together for most of the game.

Where the Steelers almost lost it, however, was in departing from this very strategy too soon. Steelers' coach Bill Cowher is well-known for his run-oriented, clock-eating style of play, and it was inevitable that the Steelers would try to slow down the game and wear away the remaining time with their running game. But in this case, it seemed that the Steelers made this move a little too early, relying too heavily on the run with too much time left on the clock. Instead of staying with the aggressive style which had kept the Colts off-balance all game, instead of trying to beat the Colts through scoring, they went to the run and their drives started stalling out. It's almost as though they thought their earlier scoring had been lucky and were reverting to their mere-mortal form.

They also seemed to soften up on defense, managing less pressure on Manning and relying more on a softer zone-based passing defense, which quickly seemed all wrong as the Colts' receivers cut back and forth between defenders and Manning started to get some of his quick-striking fire back. One exception to this was a terrific interception by Troy Polamalu, which was overturned on review on what is to me a head-scratching technicality. Polamalu caught the ball, rolled over on the ground, and then while getting up to run, knocked the ball out of his hand with his own knee. The interception was overturned because his knee was still on the ground when he lost the ball, and it was instead ruled an incomplete pass. But if Polamalu had simply rolled over and hugged the ball, and never tried to get up, his knee wouldn't have left the ground, but he would presumably have been given possession of the ball. So this rule, as I see it, makes no sense to me.

In the last few minutes of the game, the momentum shifted back and forth at a dizzying rate. Pittsburgh rolled time off the clock with slow, methodical running and controlling the time of possession, while Indianapolis showed flashes of brilliance in racking up a quick 15 points on fast, clock-saving drives. Then, with a minute to go and the Steelers seemingly in charge--1st and goal on the Colts' 2 yard line--the unthinkable happened. Jerome Bettis fumbled.

The Colts took excellent advantage of this, firing the ball back down the field, but they stalled out right at the edge of Vanderjagt's field goal range. But a 46-yard field goal for the most accurate kicker ever? No problem. Then the unthinkable happened again, and he missed, and for the first time ever, a 6th seed is going to the AFC championship game.

It's a heartbreaking way for the Colts' season to end, but despite falling apart a bit in the 4th quarter, the Steelers did exactly what they needed to do to win. They simply played better than the Colts. Great planning, great execution, and a great win.

It may be an oversimplification of things, but the way this game went makes me believe even more in my ideas about not playing it safe late in the season. I was in the camp that wanted Indianapolis to go for a perfect season, and when they lost terribly to San Diego and then rested their starters for the remaining two games of the season, it looked like looming danger to me. And what we saw today seems to have proven that out. A Steelers team that was in top form, in synch, with lots of momentum from their victories in recent weeks, beat up a Colts team which had basically been resting for a month. Protecting your star players, while a prudent move in some cases, suddenly doesn't seem so valuable to a Colts team that will be watching not only the Super Bowl, but also the AFC championship game, from their couches at home.


Denver 27, New England 13

The Broncos earned this win with the double whammy of playoff success: don't turn the ball over, and take advantage when the other team turns the ball over. It was a terrible, disappointing performance on the part of the Patriots. The Broncos played well enough to win, but the Patriots were pretty much awful. Five turnovers, lots of poorly-thrown passes from Tom Brady, blown routes by New England's receivers, and a porous defense added up to Denver dominating this game.

The Broncos played like champions--confident, consistent, mistake-free on both sides of the ball. Everything that the Pats and Colts have been known for at their best this season, the Broncos did even better here. Kudos especially to Denver QB Jake Plummer for gutsy, error-free playing. His presence of mind and quick reactions resulted in pressure situations turning into gains, from either his great throws or his quick running. This team is in prime form for next week's game against the Steelers--and they'll need to be.


Seattle 20, Washington 10

This game went pretty much the way it should have, with the Redskins making a great showing at times but ultimately overmatched by the consistent, balanced play of the Seahawks. Losing running back and NFL MVP Shaun Alexander early in the game could have been disastrous for Seattle (though he was pretty much dead weight while he was in the game), but they kept their composure and QB Matt Hasselbeck's excellent passing kept them going until they could re-establish their ground game.

Hasselbeck will get the most attention for this win, but in my opinion, backup running back Maurice Morris is the MVP of this game for Seattle. He struggled a bit at first, but once he got going, he made some great athletic runs which suddenly made the Seattle running attack a valid threat, giving the Seahawks the room they needed to keep control of things on offense. Overall, though, the Seahawks weren't terribly impressive for most of this game, and didn't seem to have much aggression going. This looks to me like a dangerous weakness going into next week's game against either the Panthers.

Even though they lost, I'd have to rate Redskins' QB Mark Brunell and wide receiver Santana Moss as the most dangerous tandem in the NFL this year. They've had an uncanny, telepathic way of connecting when the chips are down, and have pulled out the most remarkable, unlikely big plays all season long. Seeing the way both the Giants and Cowboys fizzled out this year, if Washington can come into next season healthy and with most of their key players intact, they could dominate the NFC East.


Carolina 29, Chicago 21

My mistake in making a prediction for this game's outcome was in taking the tough Chicago offense as a given. I assumed that the Bears would be tough enough on defense that the game would hinge on whether Carolina's offense could outpace Chicago's offense. But as it turned out, Carolina did it the old fashioned way--they simply beat Chicago's defense. That may sound like splitting hairs, but this turned out not to be clash of titanic defenses, but a fairly ordinary game where the offenses moved the ball pretty well, and Chicago's defense simply couldn't slow the Panthers down when it counted. Chicago's a good team, and with some more seasoning on offense, will be a major player next year. But Carolina's on quite a streak now, and even though they're probably not quite as good a team as the Seahawks, they're playing better at the moment and will be a major threat to Seattle next week.


Next week: Conference championships

Pittsburgh at Denver

Despite their different paths in reaching this point, these teams are similar in a lot of ways in how they match up, how balanced they are, and even in playing styles.
They're both playing very well and not making mistakes. In many cases, the emotion of a big win, as from the Steelers beating the Colts, can fall flat the next week. My head says to go with the Broncos, who simply look great in all areas of the game, who have home field advantage, and who simply haven't given anyone reason to doubt them. But my heart says to go with the Steelers, who've gone into two tough venues in two weeks and come away with unlikely victories. These two teams haven't met this season, so there's little hard evidence to go on here. I'll pick the Steelers.

Carolina at Seattle

Seattle is arguably the better team, still arguably the best team in the NFC. I've been pretty high on them for a lot of this season. But they haven't looked as tough as they need to be lately. They didn't beat Washington very convincingly this week, and Carolina's looking tougher than the Redskins. Carolina's been a bit of a mess this year, and their win over the Bears wasn't pretty, but they're looking tough and determined and energized. Based on how both teams looked this week, I'm leaning toward the Panthers.

Super Bowl

Not to disparage the two remaining NFC teams, who both look very impressive in many ways, but Pittsburgh and Denver are the two best teams in the NFL right now. The winner in the AFC will take the Super Bowl, and I'll ignore my head and say that Pittsburgh's going to take it all.

Labels: Sport

Well, it turned out to be an interesting and at times puzzling first week of playoffs this weekend. None of the contests were the rousing, high-flying affairs that they had the potential to be, but the stage has been set for a very interesting second round.

I didn't do badly on my picks, going 3-1, but a lot went on in these games I didn't anticipate.

New England 28, Jacksonville 3
This game was an excellent demonstration of the danger that the Patriots pose to every team in the playoffs. The Patriots' diminished power this year has often kept them from taking control of a game early, from setting the tone early and running away with things. That was the case here, with some miscues and poorly-thrown passes from Tom Brady scuttling their momentum early on. But what they can and will do, if allowed to, is gradually build a game around you that will end up suffocating you. Case in point: this game wasn't a thrill ride, quite a lot of it was simply slogging, yet the score ended up 28-3. It looks like a blowout, but it was really just slow, methodical, smart play and coaching by the Pats. Jacksonville, behind consistently ineffective QB Byron Leftwich, couldn't light a spark all game, and the Pats gradually took control of every phase of the game.

Washington 17, Tampa Bay 10
Even though I'd picked the Redskins to upset Tampa Bay, the way this game played out was a surprise. Rather than a contest of quick-striking offenses, this game was all about defense, and was thoroughly mediocre from an offensive perspective--a terrible game overall. Washington won the game with the lowest-ever offensive output in a playoff win, and Tampa Bay was stymied all day by the Redskins' secondary. But young Bucs QB Chris Simms showed a lot of poise, and we'll be seeing him and his team in the playoffs next year.

Carolina 23, Giants 0
This was the game I picked wrong, and how. I both underestimated the Panthers, who put together a powerfully effective game in every way, and overestimated the Giants, who were basically shut down across the board and embarrassed themselves. The Panthers seemed unable to step up in important situations the last few weeks, but reversed that here, something that bodes well for them in these playoffs.

I don't know what it means, but of the two toughest divisions in the NFL (the NFC East and AFC West), only three teams made the playoffs and only one, Washington, has survived (and that won't last long; see below).

Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 17
I was pulling for the Steelers, but even though I'm glad to see them continue in the playoffs, I'm sad that it happened this way, with Bengals star quarterback Carson Palmer receiving a season-ending knee injury in his very first drive of the game. The Steelers played very well and the Bengals had their chances to take the game, but in the end this game doesn't really prove which team is better. To give the Steelers credit, though, they played exactly the game they needed to play. After a bumpy start, with penalty-filled offensive drives and timid, porous defense, Pittsburgh tightened up their game, playing with more aggression and power on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, ultimately rattling the less-experienced Bengals and taking control.

With week 1 wrapped up, here are my early picks for next week's playoff matchups, when the best teams in each conference enter the fray.

New England at Denver
All of these games are difficult to pick, but this one perhaps most of all. Denver's a strong team all around, and the Pats have basically been reinventing themselves over the last month or so, so the picture on paper is pretty murky. There are many factors that could spell victory or defeat for either team, but in my estimation, the key for the Broncos will be to take control of the game early, take a strong lead, and to be the ones setting the pace through halftime and into the third quarter. As I mentioned above, the Pats have an uncanny ability to figure out and disassemble their opponents over the course of a game if given the time, and if the Broncos dawdle early on and make mistakes, as Jacksonville did this week, it will give the Pats time to settle into their groove and put the squeeze on. New England won't be bothered by the weather or fazed by playing away from home, so it may be up to the noisiness of the crowd and the consistency of Bronco QB Jake Plummer's arm to give Denver the edge. I think that Denver is probably the better all-around team at this point in the season, but I find myself unable to bet against the Pats. I think they'll take it in a close one.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
In some ways, this game will be a repeat for the Steelers--going into a loud, unfriendly setting against a high-flying, super-powered offensive team. But the Colts have more experience and more weapons than the Bengals, and a tougher defense. It's been weeks since the Colts played an important game with all their starters, so it will be very interesting to see what kind of Colts team shows up this weekend. Will their time off and recent emotional challenges involving coach Dungy's son leave them well-rested and united as a team, or rusty and inconsistent? Probably more of the former. The Steelers won't be able to afford the slow start they had this week, and will have to play an incredibly smart and responsive game. The way they adapted their game this week was promising, and they're still arguably playing the best football in the league right now. If the Colts haven't lost a step during their time off, though, they have the edge and will take it.

Washington at Seattle
Washington has been a team on a mission over the last couple months, going on a desperate winning streak to get to the playoffs and beat Tampa Bay. But their offense was a disaster in that game, and Seattle won't be as fazed by the Redskins defense. If they can get it together on offense and put together some good drives, they'll stand a remote chance. But I think the Seahawks will kill 'em--they're playing the most complete football in the NFC right now.

Carolina at Chicago
Carolina positively blew out the Giants this weekend, but the Giants are inferior to the Bears in most ways. This game should look more like the Panther's recent loss to the Cowboys, a closer game built on dueling defenses. Carolina has enough talent to win, and is almost looking too good to bet against. Almost. The Bears defense is for real, and I expect them to beat the Panthers up at the line and win the field-position contest, shortening the field for QB Rex Grossman and the Bears offense and allowing them to control time of possession. This won't be a blowout, but will ultimately hinge on the effectiveness of the Bears defense. As they go, so goes the game.

It should be very interesting to see how these turn out--who lives up to their potential. I'm looking forward to it!

Labels: Sport

This should be a great weekend of football, which will demonstrate nicely the differences between the two conferences. The AFC is overfilled with talent, and its playoffs are a clash of titans from start to finish. All the teams are great, solid and proven, and all are plausible contenders. The NFC has been in the dumps for a while, but over the course of this season has redeemed itself as a place for exciting, surprising football, with some truly tough teams emerging--it can confidently be said that the Seahawks and Bears are as strong as any team in the AFC, even the Colts.

So for the next three weeks, we'll be treated to a gallery of top-flight AFC teams fighting for supremacy and a batch of NFC up-and-comers fighting to develop their identities and separate themselves from the pack. And the result, barring something unexpected (say, Indianapolis vs. Carolina), will probably be a great Super Bowl too.

Jacksonville at New England:
The Jags have shown that they're a tough, solid team. But they've also shown, as they did when they lost their discipline and focus against the Colts, that they're capable of breakdowns and shooting themselves in the foot. Their quarterback issues--either nagging doubts if Garrard starts, or a little rustiness if Leftwich does--will probably play only a small role. But even with the Pats' diminished performance this season, they're are a team that doesn't make many mistakes, and you can't afford to make many mistakes against them. They won't be taken out of this game, and the test for the Jags will be whether they can withstand the resulting game-long pressure. They failed to against the Colts, and the Pats will throw everything they've got against them. Both teams will be looking at this game as a chance to really prove themselves--for the Jags, that they're worthy of the big stage, and for the Pats, that they're still deserving of it. The Jags have better momentum, but the Pats are more disciplined and that will give them the edge.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati:
Another fresh-faces vs. experience game that will also test the question of whether momentum matters coming into a playoff game. A few weeks ago, the Bengals looked nearly unstoppable, with only the Colts able to match their firepower. But since then they've been humbled by an average Bills team and an excellent Chiefs team, so they're heading into the playoffs with a lot of questions. They'll want to make a statement, which will be very difficult against a Steelers team that's been playing arguably the best football in the league in recent weeks, and is fired up as a result. It's a matter of pride for the Steelers. They fell perplexingly flat at times earlier in the season, but they're better than the Chiefs or Bills, and their toughness and experience will allow them to handle the Bengals. This year, anyway.

Carolina at NY Giants:
These are teams with a lot of talent but little consistency. Tiki Barber seems to be the emerging talent in this matchup, and the whole game will probably hinge on whether the Panthers can slow him down. The Panthers are a more seasoned team, but they haven't been putting it together when it counts this season. Since they're playing at home, I give this one to the Giants.

Washington at Tampa Bay:
This game is another head-scratcher. Both teams have had inconsistent seasons, and both have been able to step up in big games. How Gibbs and Gruden's coaching styles match up may be the story of the game. Tampa Bay's a solid team who's earned their division title, but the Redskins are on quite a tear. If Brunell is healthy and consistent, I have to give it to them simply because of their big-play abilities--after seeing their late-game run past the Cowboys early this season, and the way they've made that same lighting strike multiple times since then, I can't bet against them here.

Down the road
Of course, as interesting and competitive as this week is, next week should get even more interesting as the heavies in each conference--the Colts and Broncos in the AFC, and Seahawks and Bears in the NFC--enter the fray. Even after playing an extra game, the winners from this week will be more than a handful for the top seeds on each side, so there should be no letdown. Potential matchups such as Colts-Steelers, Broncos-Patriots, Seahawks-Redskins, and Bears-Giants would all be hugely entertaining.

Picking teams to reach and win the big game this year is tough, as there are a lot of variables and wildcard issues in this year's scenario. The Colts, who have backed into the playoffs after their terrible loss to San Diego, have found their emotion and focus renewed (albeit tragically) by the death of coach Dungy's son, so expect them to be back in the hunt with a vengeance. The Seahawks, after so many years of being simply middling, are trying to prove that they are for real, once and for all. I believe that they are--they’ve been playing so well and so consistently across all positions that in the end they outclass almost everyone but the Colts. I think these are the two teams we'll see in the Super Bowl, and I expect that both will acquit themselves admirably--no Philadelphia-style breakdowns.

The Seahawks are at long last good enough to win it, but unless we see something very different out of them in the next couple games, I think the Colts ultimately have what it takes this year, and will win it all.

Labels: Sport

(Alright, at the risk of appearing to dumb down this journal, I'm going to say to heck with that and write about NFL football, which is something I love. If that seems incongruous with all the idealistic hand-wringing I tend to do here, well, anyone who knows me knows I'm a bundle of contradictions. That said, let's proceed.)

While not quite at the level of the 2004 season, which I consider to be an all-time classic, the 2005 season has been consistently intriguing and surprising. From the Colts' impressive run to the surprising emergence of teams like the Bengals and Bears--and failure of other promising teams--there's been plenty of drama and head-turning results each week. Some highlights, from my perspective:

The Colts' streak ends, problematically. The questions about whether the Colts should try for an undefeated season (I was for it) are off the table now. Many pundits have said that a loss could be the best thing for the Colts, to get the perfect-season pressure off them and help focus them on the Super Bowl. In my opinion, though, this week's loss was the worst possible thing for them.

Here's why. Perhaps the most troubling thing about the game itself for the Colts was how poorly they played. Specifically, right from the start the Chargers gave them a problem to solve--failing to protect Peyton Manning and to establish a running game--and for the whole length of the game, the Colts couldn't solve it. The Chargers played a smart, flexible game, but in a sense they did one thing to the Colts--kept Manning on the run and shut down runner Edgerrin James (holding him to a season-low 25 yards)--and were able to keep doing it all game long. That a team as smart and strategic as the Colts couldn't figure out how to compensate for this weakness has to be very troubling for them. The Chargers made them look very one-dimensional, and very vulnerable.

It also leaves them in a bad spot. On paper, of course, they're in immaculate shape. Home-field advantage sewn up, plenty of time to rest key players as needed. But after a punishing loss like this one, the team needs a solid, convincing win to get their collective psyche back into championship mode. Having this disappointing game be the end of Manning, Harrison, and James' regular season would be backing into the playoffs, for sure. With revitalized Patriots and Steelers teams surging and the Bengals looking as tough as ever, the Colts now can't afford to miss a beat. They need to make another statement.

But when? With two games left, time is running out. Next week they tackle the Seahawks, the NFC's best team and a plausible Super Bowl opponent. A convincing win there would be a huge boost for the Colts, but it would also give the Seahawks lots of good study material for a potential rematch in the big game. And the Seahawks' reasonably tough defense would put the Colts' offensive stars at risk. The following week, the Colts end their season in Arizona--a prime time to rest their starters, but also a good chance to practice before the playoffs. And no matter what, I think it's bad mojo to lose your last game. With the AFC tightening up quickly, the Colts can't afford to slack off. Forget the perfect season--now things get tough for the Colts.

That said, the Colts are still the team to beat, the best team in the NFL, and hats off to them for providing the season's most exciting storyline.

Being a Dallas Cowboys fan... can be a heartbreaking thing. Even in their most recent glory days of the mid-90s, they had a way of keeping you on the edge of your seat. And it was another tough Sunday for them, as their hopes of revenge against the Redskins fell about as resoundingly flat as possible in a 35-7 drubbing that was much worse than the score indicates. If the 'Skins were a better team, the score would have been worse, but what the score does indicate is that the 'Skins have the Cowboys completely figured out this season. It was like a continuation of the last 4 minutes of the two teams' meeting earlier in the season, when the Redskins suddenly began effortlessly slicing through the Cowboys' defense. Even though this loss may spell the end of the Cowboys' playoff hopes, it's a valuable lesson that this young team has some growing up to do.

But they'll need to do it quickly. Quarterback Drew Bledsoe is the real deal, someone with enough skill and poise to take the team far. But, as has been shown this year, the sure-fire way to beat the Cowboys is to break down the pocket and pressure him. Do that, and their offense collapses. The Redskins did that perfectly, sacking Bledsoe 7 times and grabbing 3 interceptions. Bledsoe has got plenty of good play left in him, but the veteran QB won't be around forever, and if the Cowboys' offensive line doesn't capitalize on his presence, they'll be left with the potential of the no-star-quarterback haze they've suffered through in recent years, with the eventual retirement of coach Bill Parcells looming not much further off.

Speaking of offensive lines... I've been noting this all season, and recently John Madden and Joe Theismann have been commenting on it too--the offensive line is the linchpin of an entire team's success. When it breaks down, no amount of talent at other positions can compensate for it. It's the foundation of all success--it allows a team to be diverse in its play calling, which opens up the opposing defense, and it allows a team to maintain possession of the ball for long stretches, which helps to keep your defense rested and puts more pressure on the opposing team to make something happen. There's a domino effect of good or bad things that come from a good or bad offensive line performance. Unsurprising, in a game based so much on strategy, but true: the least glamorous roles make the biggest difference.

Talent versus execution. This week was a week of statements made by several teams, and none more convincing than those games where inferior teams were dominant. Objectively speaking, the Chiefs are more talented than the Giants; the Colts better than the Chargers; the Cowboys better than the Redskins; the Cardinals better than the Texans. The amount of talent at key positions in those teams is simply superior. But, as the cliche goes, that's why they play the game, and this array of not-quite-as-good teams showed that a good game plan and good execution will win on almost any day. The Chiefs played a sloppy game on both sides of the ball and, apart from Tiki Barber's fantastic running, allowed the Giants to turn middling performances into a decisive win. The Chargers left the Colts looking painfully flat. The Redskins' game plan beat the Cowboys in every phase of the game. This week was a strong reminder that planning and playing well as a team is more important than any star player to achieving victory.

The most entertaining game of the week was: the Bears vs. the Falcons. It wasn't the highest-scoring or most surprising game of the week, but it was amazing to watch the Bears' defense completely suffocate the Falcons. They're so fast, so well-organized, so alert; to watch how thoroughly and skillfully they dominate is to see an ideal for how defense should be played in football. They hammered the line, forcing Michael Vick on the move and then, where most teams lose track of him, they met him every step of the way for speed and maneuverability. It seemed that whenever an opening might arise, whenever an opportunity came up, there were two or three (or more) Bears there to snatch it from the Falcons. In its way, it was just as lovely a sight as any big offensive day for Manning & Harrison.

And on top of that, coach Lovie Smith (who further reinforced his case for being named coach of the year) looked like a genius when he brought in quarterback Rex Grossman and the Bears' offense, their weakness all year long, suddenly lit up and reinvented itself right before your eyes. All of a sudden they were a poised, relaxed, capable offensive team, and if they can maintain that into the playoffs, they become serious Super Bowl contenders. There's still no truly dominant team in the NFC, and no defense there that can match the Bears. This is going to be interesting.

My predictions for week 16:

Walks:
New England over NY Jets
Cincinnati over Buffalo
Jacksonville over Houston
Pittsburgh over Cleveland
Denver over Oakland
Chicago over Green Bay

Close ones:
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Washington over NY Giants
Carolina over Dallas (I'll be rooting for the Cowboys, though)
St. Louis over San Francisco
Philadelphia over Arizona
Indianapolis over Seattle (if Indy plays all of its stars)

Could go either way:
Baltimore over Minnesota
San Diego over Kansas City (who wants it more)
Detroit over New Orleans
Miami over Tennessee

Labels: Sport

Tonight I was distracted away from a mediocre Monday Night Football game (c'mon, who really thought that Falcons v. Saints would make a good showcase game?) by a very interesting edition of American Experience on PBS which focused on the two titanic boxing matches between Joe Louis and Max Schmeling in 1936 and 1938.

Of course, it's a gripping tale, an iconic tale for so many reasons that involve race, politics, sport, and struggle. But what affected me most about it was the sort of subtly tragic aspects of society it revealed. For a downtrodden and discriminated-against black American society, Louis quickly became an enormously powerful symbol of hope, being given a burden that no man could hope to live up to. That burden only increased when, in his rematch with Schmeling, he became the vessel for an entire country's hopes--a symbol of an entire nation that was beaten down but still somehow unified against an equally confused nation in Nazi Germany.

Both countries, short on hope and fueled by propaganda, pinned an enormous symbolic resonance on these two simple men, and in that process I saw a perfect encapsulation of humankind's need for heroes--and for enemies. The hero represents a distillation and magnification of the people's hopes, ideals, and also follies and flaws--allowing self-celebration by proxy in victory and self-flagellation by proxy in defeat. The hero's struggle against an enemy--in this case, a Germany who was not yet an enemy in practice but instead in spirit--provides a flattering mirror that allows contrast with what we dislike as different, and an exaggeration of what we most value (or imagine) in ourselves. Joe Louis, in perhaps a unique way, was a projection of our ideals sent from the depths of our collective despair and malaise to do battle with our fears and frustrations.

And at the same time, it was just a boxing match between a couple of very human, commonly flawed men. In its wake, black American leaders demanded a higher standard of action from Louis that reflected their view of him as symbol more than man (a flip side to the Nazis' indifference to Schmeling in the wake of his loss). White media had demanded an idealized standard of demeanor and personal behavior that revealed a persisting ignorance. And the rough-edged realities of these men disappeared into a legend, a heroic epic which overshadowed both their true lives and the muddled psyches of two nations seeking their identities through contrast and conflict with one another.

Labels: Culture, Sport

Music of the Day: Tyrannosaurus Rex - Unicorn, Miroslav Vitous & Jan Garbarek - Atmos, Cheap Trick - "Southern Girls".

Gooool! I discovered this weekend that the Telemundo network is showing international fútbol matches, and I was able to catch a bit of a couple. Today I saw Bolivia get their asses handed to them by Ecuador for 70 minutes before waking up with a too-late rally. This reminds me how much I love watching World Cup soccer. Hopefully I'll be able to snag some of this throughout the summer.

One thing that was interesting to watch on this Spanish-language network was the commercials. Specifically, how they're exactly like ours! Then it dawned on me that it's less a case of the commercials reflecting American culture than it is a case of them reflecting corporate culture. People see these styles as uniquely American, but we're really just as much victims of these corporate image-manipulators as the rest of the world. It's sad, and indicative of aspects of corporate power that I've been thinking about and will write about later.

While thinking aloud, I'll go ahead and state three big themes I hope to address here in the next few months: the dangers of corporate power, the nature of power and how it affects people, and what I see as the last and next-to-last great civil rights struggles of our age. (Hint: an important court decision was just made in this state about what I see as the next-to-last great civil rights issue.)

Wild about Harry. I'm not afraid to admit it--I'm a big Harry Potter fan. Those stories capture the best aspects of the fantasy tales of my youth and take me away from everything. So I was happy to see today that the latest movie is fantastic--the most enjoyable film I've seen since the first Lord of the Rings movie a few years back. A great number of book details were left out of the swirling, fast-paced filmed version, but Alfonso Cuaron captured and updated the spirit of the stories in a really magical way. I only have one quibble with the adaptation and I'm willing to believe there's a long-term reason for it, so we'll see. And in the meantime, I'll go see it again! Only one thing could have made seeing the movie better--something important from the first two that I didn't have this time.

Faces from the past. Saw some old faces this weekend; at Art in the Park I ran into two old elementary school pals, an unlikely and unexpected bit of time-traveling. Both were hale and hearty and somehow simultaneously very different from and very similar to the guys I knew back in the early years. I wonder if they saw me the same way? In any case it did my heart good to see them in good health and good spirits. And on the trail today (in the midst of another 6-mile run--5 weekends straight!), I saw a face that took me back to the slightly more recent past. Rachel, the second girl I ever fell in love with. God, her smile could light up the world. I hope she's well.

Virtual Phishing. Trying something interesting out next week--going to a "virtual" Phish concert. This being their farewell tour, I thought it'd be neat to connect to it somehow, but the shows are few and in high demand. So I'm going to check out the June 17 show which will be broadcast live to 47 movie theaters around the country. It's not the same thing as being there, but the concept is intriguing--I'm already looking forward to the cognitive dissonance! Driving a couple hours to sit in a movie theater for a few more may not be too glamorous, but it's one of those rare events I just have to check out. They're a hell of a band--it'll be worth it.

Speaking of checking out, that's all the catching up I can do for one night--the bed is calling.

Labels: Life, Sport