I've thought about writing about the NFL a few times this season, but have thought better of making prognostications in what has been, up to this point, an often confounding season. All along I've been skeptical of prevailing wisdom--remember all the pre-season claims that Carolina and Cincinnati were Superbowl favorites?--and have chosen instead to observe this unusual and hard-fought first few months.

But when your favorite team rises to its potential and beats the last unbeaten team in the league, that's as good a time as any to come out and start making some statements.

That, of course, refers to the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys taking out the high-flying 9-0 Indianapolis Colts. It's not a significant loss for the Colts--it's probably just as well to get their minds off the idea of an unbeaten season--but it's a very significant win for the Cowboys. In terms of raw numbers, it keeps them in the playoff hunt and lines up a possible division title if they can remain consistent.

To my eyes, though, the most significant thing about it is how well they seem to be functioning as a team at this stage. They've dealt with a lot of maddening chaos this year, including inexplicable breakdowns that resulted in needless losses, inconsistent performance from previous quarterback Bledsoe, major trouble with penalties, and dropped passes by star receiver Terrell Owens. No matter how much talent they have or how well they were playing in a given moment, they seemed vulnerable, ready to mess it all up. More than once this year I've been ready to declare them the rising stars, only to have an "ah, #$@%" moment as they lose another winnable game in cringe-inducing fashion.

And that's how they started this game, committing some bad turnovers and missing key opportunities to score. It looked like another mistake-prone, stumbling loss might be at hand. A sequence in the second quarter, when they failed to capitalize on good field position by not scoring a touchdown, then missed a simple field goal, then piled up a few costly penalties on the following Colts drive, seemed to herald the all-too-familiar Cowboys collapse.

But a funny thing happened in this game--instead of getting worse, they got better. They tightened up, the turnovers stopped, the penalties fell off, and they started digging in on defense. When, in the second half, they stopped the Colts and then scored a touchdown of their own to finally pull ahead, the transformation was complete. Quarterback Tony Romo was sharp and capable, the running game was good at all the right times, Terrell Owens was making key catches and key blocks as well, and the defense was disrupting the flow of Peyton Manning's 'no-panic' offense.

If this season has taught us anything, it's that any one game is no predictor of what's to come. But for the first time this season, the Cowboys seem to have a lineup that is one solid unit across the board (aside from kicker Vanderjagt's appalling performance) and which is improving by leaps and bounds. The Cowboys have a very winnable game on Thanksgiving and then play the injury-hobbled Giants the following week, and if they live up to their potential, they'll be 8-4 and solid playoff contenders. After all the media circus they've endured this year, I'm happy for them for their success, teamwork, and resolve. Hope they can keep it going.

Now, for a few of those unwise prognostications. Teams with great records are certainly emerging in both conferences. The Colts, Chargers, Broncos, Ravens, Patriots, and Bears are all obviously the real deal. In the AFC, the Chargers have been especially impressive--despite some shaky defense, they've shown that they can do whatever it takes to win, and they're looking better each game. The Colts, by a hair, are probably still the best team going, but the Cowboys figured them out this week, and if they don't find a way to solve that, then they could quickly find themselves playing catchup to San Diego or Baltimore. The Broncos are a great team, but after a great start tonight they looked flummoxed against the energetic Chargers. They and the Colts need to start winning some games definitively, so they can enter the playoffs with some momentum--failing to do that has really hurt both of those teams in recent years. The Ravens have a great record, but I'm not ready to get behind them until they get more consistent on offense.

As for the NFC, call me crazy, but I'm just not sold on the Bears yet. They've had an easy schedule, which has beefed up their stats on both sides of the ball and helped hide their issues on offense. They've only beaten two teams with winning records this year, and both of them--Seattle and the NY Giants--were hobbled by injuries at key positions. The rest of their wins have been against much weaker teams, and aside from next week's game against New England, the remainder of their schedule is pretty easy, so expect them to get home field advantage and lots of hype. But I also expect them to lose in the playoffs.

To who? Well, I guess it's time for some especially irresponsible predictions--who, with 6 games still left to play, I see emerging. It's hard to make firm predictions this year, because injuries have been such a huge issue for almost all teams--take today, when Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb received a crazily freakish season-ending injury on what looked like a routine play, ruining their chances for making the playoffs. While it's tempting to go with the safe choices of the strongest defensive teams--say, Baltimore, Chicago, and Denver--my gut's pointing me into riskier territory.

Specifically, my early-early Superbowl prediction is: San Diego vs. Dallas. That's right, Dallas. The key to the Chargers' success will be their health--they've got a pretty beat-up defense right now, and if they don't get some of those key players back or they lose more of them, then they could be in big trouble. But if they can hold the line on that side of the ball, their offense can beat anyone. The Broncos, Colts, and Patriots all look in danger of late-season identity crises, and the Ravens are flying high in a surprisingly weak division but are still a bit untested. All those teams will be strong contenders, but San Diego's got something special at the moment.

In the NFC, the playoff picture aside from the Bears is pretty muddled. The list of teams who might make it in is too long to list here, but many who are contenders by the numbers aren't going to cut it. Right now the Cowboys have an average record, but it's deceptive--they started the year with lots of chaos, including a new star receiver who wasn't used to their system, and then switched quarterbacks just a few games ago. Not to mention that they have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year. But they're also one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, with one of the best defenses. They're healthy at all key positions, they have great rhythm in their passing game, a solid run game, and lots of playmakers who can make things happen in a game. They've beaten better teams than the Bears have, and will have done more of that if they make it to the playoffs.

In short, I think they're a stealth team that is much better than their record, and they're finally starting to play like it and believe in it. And if they can get into the playoffs, they'll have good momentum, good skill across the board, and a coach with lots of postseason experience. The Bears, though an excellent team, aren't as good as their record, have inconsistency in their offense, and lack experience. Other NFC contenders, like Carolina, Seattle, and New Orleans, are as yet unproven and still have questions. And the Giants are a mess right now with all their injuries. If they can heal up quickly, I'd put them ahead of the Bears as well.

That's enough verbiage on pro football for now. From silent observer to foolhardy predictor in one day--we'll see if all that observing pays off. In this crazy season, there's no telling.

Labels: Sport