Well, it turned out to be an interesting and at times puzzling first week of playoffs this weekend. None of the contests were the rousing, high-flying affairs that they had the potential to be, but the stage has been set for a very interesting second round.

I didn't do badly on my picks, going 3-1, but a lot went on in these games I didn't anticipate.

New England 28, Jacksonville 3
This game was an excellent demonstration of the danger that the Patriots pose to every team in the playoffs. The Patriots' diminished power this year has often kept them from taking control of a game early, from setting the tone early and running away with things. That was the case here, with some miscues and poorly-thrown passes from Tom Brady scuttling their momentum early on. But what they can and will do, if allowed to, is gradually build a game around you that will end up suffocating you. Case in point: this game wasn't a thrill ride, quite a lot of it was simply slogging, yet the score ended up 28-3. It looks like a blowout, but it was really just slow, methodical, smart play and coaching by the Pats. Jacksonville, behind consistently ineffective QB Byron Leftwich, couldn't light a spark all game, and the Pats gradually took control of every phase of the game.

Washington 17, Tampa Bay 10
Even though I'd picked the Redskins to upset Tampa Bay, the way this game played out was a surprise. Rather than a contest of quick-striking offenses, this game was all about defense, and was thoroughly mediocre from an offensive perspective--a terrible game overall. Washington won the game with the lowest-ever offensive output in a playoff win, and Tampa Bay was stymied all day by the Redskins' secondary. But young Bucs QB Chris Simms showed a lot of poise, and we'll be seeing him and his team in the playoffs next year.

Carolina 23, Giants 0
This was the game I picked wrong, and how. I both underestimated the Panthers, who put together a powerfully effective game in every way, and overestimated the Giants, who were basically shut down across the board and embarrassed themselves. The Panthers seemed unable to step up in important situations the last few weeks, but reversed that here, something that bodes well for them in these playoffs.

I don't know what it means, but of the two toughest divisions in the NFL (the NFC East and AFC West), only three teams made the playoffs and only one, Washington, has survived (and that won't last long; see below).

Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 17
I was pulling for the Steelers, but even though I'm glad to see them continue in the playoffs, I'm sad that it happened this way, with Bengals star quarterback Carson Palmer receiving a season-ending knee injury in his very first drive of the game. The Steelers played very well and the Bengals had their chances to take the game, but in the end this game doesn't really prove which team is better. To give the Steelers credit, though, they played exactly the game they needed to play. After a bumpy start, with penalty-filled offensive drives and timid, porous defense, Pittsburgh tightened up their game, playing with more aggression and power on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, ultimately rattling the less-experienced Bengals and taking control.

With week 1 wrapped up, here are my early picks for next week's playoff matchups, when the best teams in each conference enter the fray.

New England at Denver
All of these games are difficult to pick, but this one perhaps most of all. Denver's a strong team all around, and the Pats have basically been reinventing themselves over the last month or so, so the picture on paper is pretty murky. There are many factors that could spell victory or defeat for either team, but in my estimation, the key for the Broncos will be to take control of the game early, take a strong lead, and to be the ones setting the pace through halftime and into the third quarter. As I mentioned above, the Pats have an uncanny ability to figure out and disassemble their opponents over the course of a game if given the time, and if the Broncos dawdle early on and make mistakes, as Jacksonville did this week, it will give the Pats time to settle into their groove and put the squeeze on. New England won't be bothered by the weather or fazed by playing away from home, so it may be up to the noisiness of the crowd and the consistency of Bronco QB Jake Plummer's arm to give Denver the edge. I think that Denver is probably the better all-around team at this point in the season, but I find myself unable to bet against the Pats. I think they'll take it in a close one.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
In some ways, this game will be a repeat for the Steelers--going into a loud, unfriendly setting against a high-flying, super-powered offensive team. But the Colts have more experience and more weapons than the Bengals, and a tougher defense. It's been weeks since the Colts played an important game with all their starters, so it will be very interesting to see what kind of Colts team shows up this weekend. Will their time off and recent emotional challenges involving coach Dungy's son leave them well-rested and united as a team, or rusty and inconsistent? Probably more of the former. The Steelers won't be able to afford the slow start they had this week, and will have to play an incredibly smart and responsive game. The way they adapted their game this week was promising, and they're still arguably playing the best football in the league right now. If the Colts haven't lost a step during their time off, though, they have the edge and will take it.

Washington at Seattle
Washington has been a team on a mission over the last couple months, going on a desperate winning streak to get to the playoffs and beat Tampa Bay. But their offense was a disaster in that game, and Seattle won't be as fazed by the Redskins defense. If they can get it together on offense and put together some good drives, they'll stand a remote chance. But I think the Seahawks will kill 'em--they're playing the most complete football in the NFC right now.

Carolina at Chicago
Carolina positively blew out the Giants this weekend, but the Giants are inferior to the Bears in most ways. This game should look more like the Panther's recent loss to the Cowboys, a closer game built on dueling defenses. Carolina has enough talent to win, and is almost looking too good to bet against. Almost. The Bears defense is for real, and I expect them to beat the Panthers up at the line and win the field-position contest, shortening the field for QB Rex Grossman and the Bears offense and allowing them to control time of possession. This won't be a blowout, but will ultimately hinge on the effectiveness of the Bears defense. As they go, so goes the game.

It should be very interesting to see how these turn out--who lives up to their potential. I'm looking forward to it!

Labels: Sport