I haven't written as much about football this year as before, and that's partially because I've watched a lot less of it this season, due to being distracted by other things. I regret that to an extent, but have tuned back in in time to catch the last part of the season and playoffs. And while not on par with the classic seasons of the previous couple years, it's been interesting.

This week, the division playoffs set the stage for next week's "final four", which should be a doozy of a weekend. In the NFC, the expected contenders came out on top, while in the AFC, the expected changing of the guard was put down in dramatic fashion.

Indianapolis 15, Baltimore 6
I hadn't seen much of the Ravens this year, but had heard all the hype. While it's hard to argue with the number-one defense in the league, I had a feeling this game would go this way. I felt that the Colts simply have too much exceptional capability, and that it would find a way to overcome the opposition. I was really impressed with the Colts' defense last week against the hapless Chiefs. They weren't so much pushing Kansas City around as they were outsmarting them, playing in just the right way. And that seems to be what this team has changed into this year. Their stats are down, they're scoring much less, Payton Manning's had a mundane year, but they're finding a way--they're doing whatever it takes to win. This game is a great example--Manning had no touchdowns and 2 interceptions, yet they win. On both sides of the ball, they've become more resourceful and more responsive to adversity. So despite stumbling late in the season, they're suddenly looking very hard to beat.

New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24
For all the talk of the miraculous Saints, I found myself rooting for Philadelphia in this game. Unlike division-mates such as the pathetic Cowboys and self-destructive Giants, the Eagles have been playing the kind of football you can get behind: tough, disciplined, scrappy, and clever. Oft-maligned backup quarterback Jeff Garcia saved the season for the team and came close to winning here, but the Saints just slipped out of reach. These two teams are probably the only ones left in the NFC who really deserve to be here--on merit alone, this should have been the conference championship game. The Saints worked hard and got some lucky breaks, and are playing a dynamic, fun style of football that should send them into the Super Bowl.

Chicago 27, Seattle 24
Chicago played a pretty good game, but I still think they're much worse than their record and their playoff position. All they really had to do to get home-field advantage in the troubled NFC was win the weakest division in the NFL. They've been spotty on offense, they backed into the playoffs with some embarrassing late-season games, and their only obstacle to the conference championship game was the injury-riddled Seahawks. I've had low expectations for Seattle, but have been impressed with how they've stepped up in the playoffs.

They made me groan, however, with what looked to me like a series of bad play calls late in the game that, in my opinion, handed the game to Chicago. Late in regulation, they were moving the ball and threatening to get into field-goal range for what would likely be a game-winning kick. Then, in one series of downs, it all fell apart. First, after a great first down, they let time roll off the clock and instead of calling a time out, when they had some to spare, they spike the ball and lose a down. Needing less than 10 yards to get into field-goal range, they take a long pass downfield on the next play, which fell incomplete. Why they did this baffles me--time's running out, all they need is a field goal, and they're needlessly shooting for the end zone. That leaves them with 3rd and 10, out of field goal range. Next, a bobbled snap by quarterback Matt Hasselbeck results in a loss of yardage, leaving them with 4th and 19, on which they fail to convert. To me this sequence sabotaged the game for them. They were playing like a team that needed to get into the end zone, when all they needed to do was pick up 10 yards. They could have run and thrown a couple short passes, but instead they squandered a down with a spike, overreached by going long downfield, and then muffed a couple plays. All I could think was, "those damned Bears get lucky again", and they did.

New England 24, San Diego 21
If any game was supposed to represent a changing of the guard, this was it. The multi-Super Bowl champion Patriots, aging and depleted in key positions, were set to hand the mantle over to the surging Chargers--winners of 10 games in a row, best record in the NFL, playing at home, with record-breaking MVP running back LaDainian Tomlinson. One of the brilliant things about the Patriots has always been how well they're able to figure out the other team, and then take them apart. I knew they'd be able to figure out San Diego, but wasn't sure if they still had the talent in key positions to pull it off. That's been their challenge this season. And for a lot of the game, it looked like they were a step behind the Chargers. But somehow, they managed to hang close, and the Chargers never really took off. This was a game the Chargers needed to not be close, because to leave the door open for the Patriots is disastrous. San Diego now has 8 months to ponder that lesson.

Predictions for next week:

New Orleans at Chicago
This should be quite a game. If Chicago's inconsistent QB Rex Grossman doesn't play well, this will be over quickly--the Bears' defense will not win this alone. If he does play well, it could be interesting. The Saints have some great offensive weapons, but this weekend the Eagles exposed some weaknesses that the Bears will try to exploit (look for how many times the Saints' new star Reggie Bush is taken down in the backfield, before he can break out, as a measure of their success). Overall I see this one going a similar way to the Colts-Ravens matchup (albeit with more scoring)--in the end, the Saints will have too many weapons for the Bears defense to handle, and their capability to create big plays will be the difference. The Bears are a good team, but not a great one, and their luck runs out here.

New England at Indianapolis
Who'd have thought that with the super-defensive Ravens and super-offensive Chargers standing in the way, we'd see this classic matchup again. But somehow this just feels like the right two teams to be left playing. This one is really hard for me to call. I still feel like the Colts have figured something out that gives them the edge on any given day, but Payton Manning cannot make the kinds of errors he's been making the last few weeks. The one advantage of his mundane play is how the rest of his team has stepped up to fill in the gap--that will be required here, too.

Since they did exactly what they needed to to ground the Chargers, it's also hard to pick against the Patriots--the Colts haven't been paying as well as the Chargers, and the Pats will have some great momentum and can-do belief coming in here. Home field favors the Colts, but it won't suffice in this game. If Manning has a good day and doesn't turn the ball over, the Colts will win--it'll be just a little too much for the Pats to handle. If he struggles, the Pats will ultimately have the edge by being able to keep it close and win on strategy. One interesting wrinkle this time around is kicker Adam Vinatieri, who won many close games for the Patriots but who's now with the Colts. Something tells me this will be a close one that may come down to his foot again.

My brain says the Patriots will win, but my heart is saying the Colts have what it takes this time.

Labels: Sport