Here's my recap of this week's division playoffs and a look ahead to the following week and the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh 21, Indianapolis 18

There will not, there *cannot* be a more hair-raising NFL game this season than today's razor-thin victory by the Steelers over the Colts. At the very end of the game, heartbreak shifted from one sideline--when it looked as though a goal-line fumble might be the last play of Jerome Bettis' NFL career--to the other side, as ultra-accurate Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt hooked a last-minute, potentially game-tying field goal wide right.

For all the remarkable, gutsy playing from both teams, in my opinion it was the Steelers who both took control of the game and almost gave it away near the end. They took control of the game on offense by opening things up right off the bat, relying on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to carry the team downfield, and he responded with great, accurate throws. This was incredibly smart on the part of the Steelers--they must have known that they wouldn't be able to keep up with the Colts if they tried to set a slow, grinding tempo right out of the gate, so they did the exact opposite--they took the Colts own high-flying style right back at them. By streaking out to a 14-0 lead early in the game, they put a sense of urgency on the Colts that never wore off, forcing them out of the calm, controlled style where they're most comfortable.

They also took control of the game right away on defense, playing a hard, aggressive style which put Manning under pressure and kept the Colts' offense from developing any rhythm. They must have anticipated a bit of rustiness on the part of the Colts, who'd gone about a month without a meaningful game, and took advantage perfectly. The combination of a pass-oriented initial attack and rhythm-disrupting defense completely stymied the Colts and prevented them from stringing any consistent play together for most of the game.

Where the Steelers almost lost it, however, was in departing from this very strategy too soon. Steelers' coach Bill Cowher is well-known for his run-oriented, clock-eating style of play, and it was inevitable that the Steelers would try to slow down the game and wear away the remaining time with their running game. But in this case, it seemed that the Steelers made this move a little too early, relying too heavily on the run with too much time left on the clock. Instead of staying with the aggressive style which had kept the Colts off-balance all game, instead of trying to beat the Colts through scoring, they went to the run and their drives started stalling out. It's almost as though they thought their earlier scoring had been lucky and were reverting to their mere-mortal form.

They also seemed to soften up on defense, managing less pressure on Manning and relying more on a softer zone-based passing defense, which quickly seemed all wrong as the Colts' receivers cut back and forth between defenders and Manning started to get some of his quick-striking fire back. One exception to this was a terrific interception by Troy Polamalu, which was overturned on review on what is to me a head-scratching technicality. Polamalu caught the ball, rolled over on the ground, and then while getting up to run, knocked the ball out of his hand with his own knee. The interception was overturned because his knee was still on the ground when he lost the ball, and it was instead ruled an incomplete pass. But if Polamalu had simply rolled over and hugged the ball, and never tried to get up, his knee wouldn't have left the ground, but he would presumably have been given possession of the ball. So this rule, as I see it, makes no sense to me.

In the last few minutes of the game, the momentum shifted back and forth at a dizzying rate. Pittsburgh rolled time off the clock with slow, methodical running and controlling the time of possession, while Indianapolis showed flashes of brilliance in racking up a quick 15 points on fast, clock-saving drives. Then, with a minute to go and the Steelers seemingly in charge--1st and goal on the Colts' 2 yard line--the unthinkable happened. Jerome Bettis fumbled.

The Colts took excellent advantage of this, firing the ball back down the field, but they stalled out right at the edge of Vanderjagt's field goal range. But a 46-yard field goal for the most accurate kicker ever? No problem. Then the unthinkable happened again, and he missed, and for the first time ever, a 6th seed is going to the AFC championship game.

It's a heartbreaking way for the Colts' season to end, but despite falling apart a bit in the 4th quarter, the Steelers did exactly what they needed to do to win. They simply played better than the Colts. Great planning, great execution, and a great win.

It may be an oversimplification of things, but the way this game went makes me believe even more in my ideas about not playing it safe late in the season. I was in the camp that wanted Indianapolis to go for a perfect season, and when they lost terribly to San Diego and then rested their starters for the remaining two games of the season, it looked like looming danger to me. And what we saw today seems to have proven that out. A Steelers team that was in top form, in synch, with lots of momentum from their victories in recent weeks, beat up a Colts team which had basically been resting for a month. Protecting your star players, while a prudent move in some cases, suddenly doesn't seem so valuable to a Colts team that will be watching not only the Super Bowl, but also the AFC championship game, from their couches at home.


Denver 27, New England 13

The Broncos earned this win with the double whammy of playoff success: don't turn the ball over, and take advantage when the other team turns the ball over. It was a terrible, disappointing performance on the part of the Patriots. The Broncos played well enough to win, but the Patriots were pretty much awful. Five turnovers, lots of poorly-thrown passes from Tom Brady, blown routes by New England's receivers, and a porous defense added up to Denver dominating this game.

The Broncos played like champions--confident, consistent, mistake-free on both sides of the ball. Everything that the Pats and Colts have been known for at their best this season, the Broncos did even better here. Kudos especially to Denver QB Jake Plummer for gutsy, error-free playing. His presence of mind and quick reactions resulted in pressure situations turning into gains, from either his great throws or his quick running. This team is in prime form for next week's game against the Steelers--and they'll need to be.


Seattle 20, Washington 10

This game went pretty much the way it should have, with the Redskins making a great showing at times but ultimately overmatched by the consistent, balanced play of the Seahawks. Losing running back and NFL MVP Shaun Alexander early in the game could have been disastrous for Seattle (though he was pretty much dead weight while he was in the game), but they kept their composure and QB Matt Hasselbeck's excellent passing kept them going until they could re-establish their ground game.

Hasselbeck will get the most attention for this win, but in my opinion, backup running back Maurice Morris is the MVP of this game for Seattle. He struggled a bit at first, but once he got going, he made some great athletic runs which suddenly made the Seattle running attack a valid threat, giving the Seahawks the room they needed to keep control of things on offense. Overall, though, the Seahawks weren't terribly impressive for most of this game, and didn't seem to have much aggression going. This looks to me like a dangerous weakness going into next week's game against either the Panthers.

Even though they lost, I'd have to rate Redskins' QB Mark Brunell and wide receiver Santana Moss as the most dangerous tandem in the NFL this year. They've had an uncanny, telepathic way of connecting when the chips are down, and have pulled out the most remarkable, unlikely big plays all season long. Seeing the way both the Giants and Cowboys fizzled out this year, if Washington can come into next season healthy and with most of their key players intact, they could dominate the NFC East.


Carolina 29, Chicago 21

My mistake in making a prediction for this game's outcome was in taking the tough Chicago offense as a given. I assumed that the Bears would be tough enough on defense that the game would hinge on whether Carolina's offense could outpace Chicago's offense. But as it turned out, Carolina did it the old fashioned way--they simply beat Chicago's defense. That may sound like splitting hairs, but this turned out not to be clash of titanic defenses, but a fairly ordinary game where the offenses moved the ball pretty well, and Chicago's defense simply couldn't slow the Panthers down when it counted. Chicago's a good team, and with some more seasoning on offense, will be a major player next year. But Carolina's on quite a streak now, and even though they're probably not quite as good a team as the Seahawks, they're playing better at the moment and will be a major threat to Seattle next week.


Next week: Conference championships

Pittsburgh at Denver

Despite their different paths in reaching this point, these teams are similar in a lot of ways in how they match up, how balanced they are, and even in playing styles.
They're both playing very well and not making mistakes. In many cases, the emotion of a big win, as from the Steelers beating the Colts, can fall flat the next week. My head says to go with the Broncos, who simply look great in all areas of the game, who have home field advantage, and who simply haven't given anyone reason to doubt them. But my heart says to go with the Steelers, who've gone into two tough venues in two weeks and come away with unlikely victories. These two teams haven't met this season, so there's little hard evidence to go on here. I'll pick the Steelers.

Carolina at Seattle

Seattle is arguably the better team, still arguably the best team in the NFC. I've been pretty high on them for a lot of this season. But they haven't looked as tough as they need to be lately. They didn't beat Washington very convincingly this week, and Carolina's looking tougher than the Redskins. Carolina's been a bit of a mess this year, and their win over the Bears wasn't pretty, but they're looking tough and determined and energized. Based on how both teams looked this week, I'm leaning toward the Panthers.

Super Bowl

Not to disparage the two remaining NFC teams, who both look very impressive in many ways, but Pittsburgh and Denver are the two best teams in the NFL right now. The winner in the AFC will take the Super Bowl, and I'll ignore my head and say that Pittsburgh's going to take it all.

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