Shuddering energy, hammering the floorboreds. A swirling, dry slithering like earthworms in the air. Kinetic energy passed like an invisible crowd-surfer. Eyes dart around the room hungrily, carelessly, abstractly, from energy sources to the map of faces to obscured images of lustfulness. Roping and mounting this current, a view from above the seething bed of flesh, smoke and solvents. Fourteen limbs pound and pull and stroke at unleashing the essence, a hand-hydra of striving simultanea. It pours out like a broken dam over the edge and crashes down into the ringed eyes, where it's met with warmth and coolty. Bodies gyrate as in a great invisible grasp, others observe the ritual from behind and out front of masks. Openness and closedness, penetration and deflection, acceptance and remoteness, dissolving into the stinging cloud as the djinn flee their bottles by the fistful. At the edges, around the corners out of sight, chilled eyes calculate a practiced ritual, tabulating tos and fros and the rising and lowering of masks and the rate of djinn-liberation. Unheard under the din, tiny abaci rattle, total, and spit out their verdict. Their ears like sieves, allowing the essence to flit through unconsidered. Hidden knives slit out and dissect the moment, neatly separating the components and in a blur exchanging one part for another, a chugging blue train for a shambling crazy-quilt. Outside the rumbling walls is cold gray and frozen amber, emptiness, lonely scatteredness scrabbling for warmth and oblivion. Bitterness and brazenness and brokenness hover and dissipate, draining off under the sweep of the great hand, silencing any protest, drowning and exhaling any honor, any trust, any hope.

Labels: Poems

Now that we're comfortably settling in to 2006, and everyone's finally taken down their Xmas trees (you know who you are), I'd like to take a quick look back to 2005 and pick what I think are the finest of the finest songs released during the year.

For those with iTunes, I've included direct links for each of the songs below, so you can quickly hear a clip for yourself and buy it if you like (they're all worth it). So without further ado:

1. Stars - Ageless Beauty
This magnificent blast of shimmering, urgent wistfulness comes from perhaps my favorite album of the year, Set Yourself On Fire. Sheer, unmitigated pop brilliance.

2. The New Pornographers - The Bones Of An Idol
This concise, patient number builds gradually into my favorite musical moment of the year: its sparkling, harmonious outro. Highlights the honeyed power of Neko Case's voice.

3. The Darkness - Dinner Lady Arms
A hair-raising track from a hair-raising album of British glam metal. Mix one part Def Leppard's "Hysteria", one part "Killer Queen", add a pinch of ELO, and turn up to 11.

4. The Church - Tristesse
A simply beautiful reading of their classic song from 1986, with guitarist Marty Willson-Piper taking over on vocals. The lush bed of layered acoustic guitars is rhapsodic.

5. Jamiroquai - Feels Just Like It Should
Funky, grunty, shifty dancefloor number with a catchy-as-hell elephantine groove. Dirty, sweet, and very nice.

6. New Pornographers - Use It
Hyper-kinetic, driving, rollicking slab of cheeky, winking innuendo with a gale-force chorus that'll take your head off.

7. Tegan & Sara - I Bet It Stung (live)
The live setting adds a touch of extra grit and moan to this stuttering, impassioned track from their So Jealous LP.

8. Gorillaz - Dirty Harry
Sly, terrifically constructed track that mixes a thick, blipping groove with children's choir, handclaps, and some nice rapping.

9. Kings of Leon - The Bucket
Just a great, catchy, southern-fried bit of modern rock with primal guitar work and nice shifting chords against pedaled bass.

10. Oasis - Lyla
Oasis sweeps back on the scene with this super-hooky number, all bright, British stomp and stadium chorus. Fun and rocking.

11. Son Volt - Bandages & Scars
The best track from their new album is a classic, dirt-road number that reaches the level of their wonderful first album, Trace.

12. All-American Rejects - Move Along
Yeah, it's slick, processed rock-pop, but I like these guys, they do it really well. A gutsy, propulsive, high-energy number.

13. Iron & Wine and Calexico - History Of Lovers
A warm, dusty, super-catchy bit of gently folksy melody. A perfect combination of Sam Beam's breathy voice and Calexico's southwestern twang.

14. Sigur Ros - Glósóli
A great distillation of this band's varied moods and intensities, slowly drifting from atmospheric sadness to roaring, tragic massiveness.

15. Death From Above 1979 - Black History Month (iTunes session)
Though this duo is too often content to stretch one small idea into a full song, this is a good one. Dark, dramatic, snarling bass riff sets an edgy mood for the haunted vocals.

2006 is looking like it will be a good year as well (can't wait for that new Church album, coming this spring), but 2005 delivered a great array of varied, smart, memorable music. Happy listening!

Labels: Music

Here's my recap of this week's division playoffs and a look ahead to the following week and the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh 21, Indianapolis 18

There will not, there *cannot* be a more hair-raising NFL game this season than today's razor-thin victory by the Steelers over the Colts. At the very end of the game, heartbreak shifted from one sideline--when it looked as though a goal-line fumble might be the last play of Jerome Bettis' NFL career--to the other side, as ultra-accurate Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt hooked a last-minute, potentially game-tying field goal wide right.

For all the remarkable, gutsy playing from both teams, in my opinion it was the Steelers who both took control of the game and almost gave it away near the end. They took control of the game on offense by opening things up right off the bat, relying on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to carry the team downfield, and he responded with great, accurate throws. This was incredibly smart on the part of the Steelers--they must have known that they wouldn't be able to keep up with the Colts if they tried to set a slow, grinding tempo right out of the gate, so they did the exact opposite--they took the Colts own high-flying style right back at them. By streaking out to a 14-0 lead early in the game, they put a sense of urgency on the Colts that never wore off, forcing them out of the calm, controlled style where they're most comfortable.

They also took control of the game right away on defense, playing a hard, aggressive style which put Manning under pressure and kept the Colts' offense from developing any rhythm. They must have anticipated a bit of rustiness on the part of the Colts, who'd gone about a month without a meaningful game, and took advantage perfectly. The combination of a pass-oriented initial attack and rhythm-disrupting defense completely stymied the Colts and prevented them from stringing any consistent play together for most of the game.

Where the Steelers almost lost it, however, was in departing from this very strategy too soon. Steelers' coach Bill Cowher is well-known for his run-oriented, clock-eating style of play, and it was inevitable that the Steelers would try to slow down the game and wear away the remaining time with their running game. But in this case, it seemed that the Steelers made this move a little too early, relying too heavily on the run with too much time left on the clock. Instead of staying with the aggressive style which had kept the Colts off-balance all game, instead of trying to beat the Colts through scoring, they went to the run and their drives started stalling out. It's almost as though they thought their earlier scoring had been lucky and were reverting to their mere-mortal form.

They also seemed to soften up on defense, managing less pressure on Manning and relying more on a softer zone-based passing defense, which quickly seemed all wrong as the Colts' receivers cut back and forth between defenders and Manning started to get some of his quick-striking fire back. One exception to this was a terrific interception by Troy Polamalu, which was overturned on review on what is to me a head-scratching technicality. Polamalu caught the ball, rolled over on the ground, and then while getting up to run, knocked the ball out of his hand with his own knee. The interception was overturned because his knee was still on the ground when he lost the ball, and it was instead ruled an incomplete pass. But if Polamalu had simply rolled over and hugged the ball, and never tried to get up, his knee wouldn't have left the ground, but he would presumably have been given possession of the ball. So this rule, as I see it, makes no sense to me.

In the last few minutes of the game, the momentum shifted back and forth at a dizzying rate. Pittsburgh rolled time off the clock with slow, methodical running and controlling the time of possession, while Indianapolis showed flashes of brilliance in racking up a quick 15 points on fast, clock-saving drives. Then, with a minute to go and the Steelers seemingly in charge--1st and goal on the Colts' 2 yard line--the unthinkable happened. Jerome Bettis fumbled.

The Colts took excellent advantage of this, firing the ball back down the field, but they stalled out right at the edge of Vanderjagt's field goal range. But a 46-yard field goal for the most accurate kicker ever? No problem. Then the unthinkable happened again, and he missed, and for the first time ever, a 6th seed is going to the AFC championship game.

It's a heartbreaking way for the Colts' season to end, but despite falling apart a bit in the 4th quarter, the Steelers did exactly what they needed to do to win. They simply played better than the Colts. Great planning, great execution, and a great win.

It may be an oversimplification of things, but the way this game went makes me believe even more in my ideas about not playing it safe late in the season. I was in the camp that wanted Indianapolis to go for a perfect season, and when they lost terribly to San Diego and then rested their starters for the remaining two games of the season, it looked like looming danger to me. And what we saw today seems to have proven that out. A Steelers team that was in top form, in synch, with lots of momentum from their victories in recent weeks, beat up a Colts team which had basically been resting for a month. Protecting your star players, while a prudent move in some cases, suddenly doesn't seem so valuable to a Colts team that will be watching not only the Super Bowl, but also the AFC championship game, from their couches at home.


Denver 27, New England 13

The Broncos earned this win with the double whammy of playoff success: don't turn the ball over, and take advantage when the other team turns the ball over. It was a terrible, disappointing performance on the part of the Patriots. The Broncos played well enough to win, but the Patriots were pretty much awful. Five turnovers, lots of poorly-thrown passes from Tom Brady, blown routes by New England's receivers, and a porous defense added up to Denver dominating this game.

The Broncos played like champions--confident, consistent, mistake-free on both sides of the ball. Everything that the Pats and Colts have been known for at their best this season, the Broncos did even better here. Kudos especially to Denver QB Jake Plummer for gutsy, error-free playing. His presence of mind and quick reactions resulted in pressure situations turning into gains, from either his great throws or his quick running. This team is in prime form for next week's game against the Steelers--and they'll need to be.


Seattle 20, Washington 10

This game went pretty much the way it should have, with the Redskins making a great showing at times but ultimately overmatched by the consistent, balanced play of the Seahawks. Losing running back and NFL MVP Shaun Alexander early in the game could have been disastrous for Seattle (though he was pretty much dead weight while he was in the game), but they kept their composure and QB Matt Hasselbeck's excellent passing kept them going until they could re-establish their ground game.

Hasselbeck will get the most attention for this win, but in my opinion, backup running back Maurice Morris is the MVP of this game for Seattle. He struggled a bit at first, but once he got going, he made some great athletic runs which suddenly made the Seattle running attack a valid threat, giving the Seahawks the room they needed to keep control of things on offense. Overall, though, the Seahawks weren't terribly impressive for most of this game, and didn't seem to have much aggression going. This looks to me like a dangerous weakness going into next week's game against either the Panthers.

Even though they lost, I'd have to rate Redskins' QB Mark Brunell and wide receiver Santana Moss as the most dangerous tandem in the NFL this year. They've had an uncanny, telepathic way of connecting when the chips are down, and have pulled out the most remarkable, unlikely big plays all season long. Seeing the way both the Giants and Cowboys fizzled out this year, if Washington can come into next season healthy and with most of their key players intact, they could dominate the NFC East.


Carolina 29, Chicago 21

My mistake in making a prediction for this game's outcome was in taking the tough Chicago offense as a given. I assumed that the Bears would be tough enough on defense that the game would hinge on whether Carolina's offense could outpace Chicago's offense. But as it turned out, Carolina did it the old fashioned way--they simply beat Chicago's defense. That may sound like splitting hairs, but this turned out not to be clash of titanic defenses, but a fairly ordinary game where the offenses moved the ball pretty well, and Chicago's defense simply couldn't slow the Panthers down when it counted. Chicago's a good team, and with some more seasoning on offense, will be a major player next year. But Carolina's on quite a streak now, and even though they're probably not quite as good a team as the Seahawks, they're playing better at the moment and will be a major threat to Seattle next week.


Next week: Conference championships

Pittsburgh at Denver

Despite their different paths in reaching this point, these teams are similar in a lot of ways in how they match up, how balanced they are, and even in playing styles.
They're both playing very well and not making mistakes. In many cases, the emotion of a big win, as from the Steelers beating the Colts, can fall flat the next week. My head says to go with the Broncos, who simply look great in all areas of the game, who have home field advantage, and who simply haven't given anyone reason to doubt them. But my heart says to go with the Steelers, who've gone into two tough venues in two weeks and come away with unlikely victories. These two teams haven't met this season, so there's little hard evidence to go on here. I'll pick the Steelers.

Carolina at Seattle

Seattle is arguably the better team, still arguably the best team in the NFC. I've been pretty high on them for a lot of this season. But they haven't looked as tough as they need to be lately. They didn't beat Washington very convincingly this week, and Carolina's looking tougher than the Redskins. Carolina's been a bit of a mess this year, and their win over the Bears wasn't pretty, but they're looking tough and determined and energized. Based on how both teams looked this week, I'm leaning toward the Panthers.

Super Bowl

Not to disparage the two remaining NFC teams, who both look very impressive in many ways, but Pittsburgh and Denver are the two best teams in the NFL right now. The winner in the AFC will take the Super Bowl, and I'll ignore my head and say that Pittsburgh's going to take it all.

Labels: Sport

This week, the U.S. launched a surprise airstrike inside the border of Pakistan, attempting to kill either the erstwhile Al-Qaeda #2, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, or the head of the Taliban, Mullah Mohammed Omar. At this point, all accounts indicate that the U.S. acted on bad intelligence, the result being that 18 innocent people--including women and children--were killed.

During the Clinton presidency, something simliar was tried--an airstrike in Afghanistan which was an attempt to kill Osama bin Laden. That also failed, and Clinton was ridiculed and scorned (and still is, to this day) by both the Republicans in Congress and by the media.

Watch carefully, and compare the way Republicans and the media react to this new situation.

For a little perspective, here are President Clinton's own words about his failed strike:

Now, I had one other option. I could have bombed or sent more missiles in. As far as we knew he never went back to his training camp. So the only place bin Laden ever went that we knew was occasionally he went to Khandahar, where he always spent the night in a compound that had 200 women and children.

So I could have, on any given night, ordered an attack that I knew would kill 200 women and children that had less than a 50 percent chance of getting him.

Now, after he murdered 3,100 of our people and others who came to our country seeking their livelihood, you may say, 'Well, Mr. President, you should have killed those 200 women and children.'

But at the time, we didn't think he had the capacity to do that. And no one thought that I should do that. Although I take full responsibility for it.

Do you feel safer and more content knowing that we currently have a president without such hesitations (see the at least 30,000 civilians killed in Iraq)?

Labels: Politics

A breaking new story says it pretty plainly: "A secret Pentagon study has found that at least 80 percent of the marines who have been killed in Iraq from wounds to their upper body could have survived if they had extra body armor."

The story of exactly what the Marines needed, and all the factors tied in to why they haven't been getting it for almost the last three years, is a disturbing and vital one--the story linked above is a must-read. When you see this debacle and then compare it to, for example, how quickly and easily the administration has whipped up billions of dollars for no-bid Halliburton contracts, it's enough to give any sensible person pause.

This situation is a very good example of why I and so many other people have grown to detest the Bush administration. It's not about Bush being a bad man (that's not for me to judge), it's not that I personally hate the guy, but things like this story, recent revelations about how his high-level appointees have stymied mine-safety investigative bodies, and of course the whole FEMA disaster with Hurricane Katrina--and to be honest, you can take this back to 9/11 itself--show a pattern of mismanagement and carelessness that stands in sharp contrast to their rhetoric. They're friends of the military, yet they don't provide them with the tools they need and then cut their benefits after they return home. With friends like those...

Time and time again, we see the Bush administration appointing inexperienced, unconcerned cronies to key positions, and the neglect and oversights that result. Those who dismiss criticism of Bush by saying he didn't personally cause any of the disasters we've been through during his time in office are missing the point--that his own lack of concern for and awareness of the outcomes of decisions has a ripple effect that is costing American lives, American respect in the international sphere, and American unity at home. His administration is bad for the country, and these Marines aren't the first or last to pay the price. We deserve better.

Labels: Politics

Well, it turned out to be an interesting and at times puzzling first week of playoffs this weekend. None of the contests were the rousing, high-flying affairs that they had the potential to be, but the stage has been set for a very interesting second round.

I didn't do badly on my picks, going 3-1, but a lot went on in these games I didn't anticipate.

New England 28, Jacksonville 3
This game was an excellent demonstration of the danger that the Patriots pose to every team in the playoffs. The Patriots' diminished power this year has often kept them from taking control of a game early, from setting the tone early and running away with things. That was the case here, with some miscues and poorly-thrown passes from Tom Brady scuttling their momentum early on. But what they can and will do, if allowed to, is gradually build a game around you that will end up suffocating you. Case in point: this game wasn't a thrill ride, quite a lot of it was simply slogging, yet the score ended up 28-3. It looks like a blowout, but it was really just slow, methodical, smart play and coaching by the Pats. Jacksonville, behind consistently ineffective QB Byron Leftwich, couldn't light a spark all game, and the Pats gradually took control of every phase of the game.

Washington 17, Tampa Bay 10
Even though I'd picked the Redskins to upset Tampa Bay, the way this game played out was a surprise. Rather than a contest of quick-striking offenses, this game was all about defense, and was thoroughly mediocre from an offensive perspective--a terrible game overall. Washington won the game with the lowest-ever offensive output in a playoff win, and Tampa Bay was stymied all day by the Redskins' secondary. But young Bucs QB Chris Simms showed a lot of poise, and we'll be seeing him and his team in the playoffs next year.

Carolina 23, Giants 0
This was the game I picked wrong, and how. I both underestimated the Panthers, who put together a powerfully effective game in every way, and overestimated the Giants, who were basically shut down across the board and embarrassed themselves. The Panthers seemed unable to step up in important situations the last few weeks, but reversed that here, something that bodes well for them in these playoffs.

I don't know what it means, but of the two toughest divisions in the NFL (the NFC East and AFC West), only three teams made the playoffs and only one, Washington, has survived (and that won't last long; see below).

Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 17
I was pulling for the Steelers, but even though I'm glad to see them continue in the playoffs, I'm sad that it happened this way, with Bengals star quarterback Carson Palmer receiving a season-ending knee injury in his very first drive of the game. The Steelers played very well and the Bengals had their chances to take the game, but in the end this game doesn't really prove which team is better. To give the Steelers credit, though, they played exactly the game they needed to play. After a bumpy start, with penalty-filled offensive drives and timid, porous defense, Pittsburgh tightened up their game, playing with more aggression and power on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, ultimately rattling the less-experienced Bengals and taking control.

With week 1 wrapped up, here are my early picks for next week's playoff matchups, when the best teams in each conference enter the fray.

New England at Denver
All of these games are difficult to pick, but this one perhaps most of all. Denver's a strong team all around, and the Pats have basically been reinventing themselves over the last month or so, so the picture on paper is pretty murky. There are many factors that could spell victory or defeat for either team, but in my estimation, the key for the Broncos will be to take control of the game early, take a strong lead, and to be the ones setting the pace through halftime and into the third quarter. As I mentioned above, the Pats have an uncanny ability to figure out and disassemble their opponents over the course of a game if given the time, and if the Broncos dawdle early on and make mistakes, as Jacksonville did this week, it will give the Pats time to settle into their groove and put the squeeze on. New England won't be bothered by the weather or fazed by playing away from home, so it may be up to the noisiness of the crowd and the consistency of Bronco QB Jake Plummer's arm to give Denver the edge. I think that Denver is probably the better all-around team at this point in the season, but I find myself unable to bet against the Pats. I think they'll take it in a close one.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
In some ways, this game will be a repeat for the Steelers--going into a loud, unfriendly setting against a high-flying, super-powered offensive team. But the Colts have more experience and more weapons than the Bengals, and a tougher defense. It's been weeks since the Colts played an important game with all their starters, so it will be very interesting to see what kind of Colts team shows up this weekend. Will their time off and recent emotional challenges involving coach Dungy's son leave them well-rested and united as a team, or rusty and inconsistent? Probably more of the former. The Steelers won't be able to afford the slow start they had this week, and will have to play an incredibly smart and responsive game. The way they adapted their game this week was promising, and they're still arguably playing the best football in the league right now. If the Colts haven't lost a step during their time off, though, they have the edge and will take it.

Washington at Seattle
Washington has been a team on a mission over the last couple months, going on a desperate winning streak to get to the playoffs and beat Tampa Bay. But their offense was a disaster in that game, and Seattle won't be as fazed by the Redskins defense. If they can get it together on offense and put together some good drives, they'll stand a remote chance. But I think the Seahawks will kill 'em--they're playing the most complete football in the NFC right now.

Carolina at Chicago
Carolina positively blew out the Giants this weekend, but the Giants are inferior to the Bears in most ways. This game should look more like the Panther's recent loss to the Cowboys, a closer game built on dueling defenses. Carolina has enough talent to win, and is almost looking too good to bet against. Almost. The Bears defense is for real, and I expect them to beat the Panthers up at the line and win the field-position contest, shortening the field for QB Rex Grossman and the Bears offense and allowing them to control time of possession. This won't be a blowout, but will ultimately hinge on the effectiveness of the Bears defense. As they go, so goes the game.

It should be very interesting to see how these turn out--who lives up to their potential. I'm looking forward to it!

Labels: Sport

...well, sort of!

I learned a pretty interesting bit of family trivia tonight that I'd never known. I was talking with my folks about the new movie coming out next week, Glory Road, which tells the story of the first NCAA team of all-black starters (Texas Western) and their road to a national championship.

As it turns out, my dad's brother Gary, who'd played basketball for the University of Kentucky (he played forward, and wasn't a starter but was one of the first off the bench), was on the very team that Texas Western upset in the championship game in 1966, as depicted in the movie. He played alongside Pat Riley, who went on to great coaching fame in the NBA. In fact, he even has someone playing him in this movie!

Way to go, Uncle Gary!

Labels: Life

A report out of Iraq this week paints what is, to me, a disturbing picture of our routine military practices there. This particular story has to do with our military killing a family of 12 in their home while ostensibly targeting "insurgents". It went like this:

In a statement, the U.S. military said an unmanned drone in the area had tracked three men digging in a road about 9 p.m. Monday. Insurgents commonly plant bombs in such craters to catch passing convoys of U.S. and Iraqi officials.
The military called in air support, tracked the three men as they entered a building nearby and attacked the building with precision-guided munitions, the military said.

Call me incredibly naïve, but this sounds pretty shocking to me. Is this how we win the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people? Is this the kind of care we take with innocent life? If this is any indication, it's little wonder that we've killed 20,000 to 100,000 Iraqi civilians to date.

So a remote-controlled camera sees some men digging a hole, we track them from a distance, and then send in jets to bomb the building they go to. I have to think that this is an approach designed to minimize U.S. casualties--a good goal in principle--but it makes clear that we're willing to take much greater chances with Iraqi lives than our own, which means we value them less than we do ourselves, which means their welfare is not our top concern, which means that our president's most recent reason for invading Iraq, this vaunted notion of delivering freedom and democracy--coming after the initial several reasons have fallen apart as lies, exaggerations, and deceit--is also a lie.

We're not delivering freedom to Iraq, but our own form of crudely administered dictatorial power. We trumpet elections being held even as we occupy and control most every facet of the country, preventing the Iraqis from controlling their own natural resources, preventing their workers from organizing, preventing them from nationalizing their utilities, as we sell off their country's business opportunities to the highest foreign bidder.

That's not freedom.

Labels: Politics

This should be a great weekend of football, which will demonstrate nicely the differences between the two conferences. The AFC is overfilled with talent, and its playoffs are a clash of titans from start to finish. All the teams are great, solid and proven, and all are plausible contenders. The NFC has been in the dumps for a while, but over the course of this season has redeemed itself as a place for exciting, surprising football, with some truly tough teams emerging--it can confidently be said that the Seahawks and Bears are as strong as any team in the AFC, even the Colts.

So for the next three weeks, we'll be treated to a gallery of top-flight AFC teams fighting for supremacy and a batch of NFC up-and-comers fighting to develop their identities and separate themselves from the pack. And the result, barring something unexpected (say, Indianapolis vs. Carolina), will probably be a great Super Bowl too.

Jacksonville at New England:
The Jags have shown that they're a tough, solid team. But they've also shown, as they did when they lost their discipline and focus against the Colts, that they're capable of breakdowns and shooting themselves in the foot. Their quarterback issues--either nagging doubts if Garrard starts, or a little rustiness if Leftwich does--will probably play only a small role. But even with the Pats' diminished performance this season, they're are a team that doesn't make many mistakes, and you can't afford to make many mistakes against them. They won't be taken out of this game, and the test for the Jags will be whether they can withstand the resulting game-long pressure. They failed to against the Colts, and the Pats will throw everything they've got against them. Both teams will be looking at this game as a chance to really prove themselves--for the Jags, that they're worthy of the big stage, and for the Pats, that they're still deserving of it. The Jags have better momentum, but the Pats are more disciplined and that will give them the edge.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati:
Another fresh-faces vs. experience game that will also test the question of whether momentum matters coming into a playoff game. A few weeks ago, the Bengals looked nearly unstoppable, with only the Colts able to match their firepower. But since then they've been humbled by an average Bills team and an excellent Chiefs team, so they're heading into the playoffs with a lot of questions. They'll want to make a statement, which will be very difficult against a Steelers team that's been playing arguably the best football in the league in recent weeks, and is fired up as a result. It's a matter of pride for the Steelers. They fell perplexingly flat at times earlier in the season, but they're better than the Chiefs or Bills, and their toughness and experience will allow them to handle the Bengals. This year, anyway.

Carolina at NY Giants:
These are teams with a lot of talent but little consistency. Tiki Barber seems to be the emerging talent in this matchup, and the whole game will probably hinge on whether the Panthers can slow him down. The Panthers are a more seasoned team, but they haven't been putting it together when it counts this season. Since they're playing at home, I give this one to the Giants.

Washington at Tampa Bay:
This game is another head-scratcher. Both teams have had inconsistent seasons, and both have been able to step up in big games. How Gibbs and Gruden's coaching styles match up may be the story of the game. Tampa Bay's a solid team who's earned their division title, but the Redskins are on quite a tear. If Brunell is healthy and consistent, I have to give it to them simply because of their big-play abilities--after seeing their late-game run past the Cowboys early this season, and the way they've made that same lighting strike multiple times since then, I can't bet against them here.

Down the road
Of course, as interesting and competitive as this week is, next week should get even more interesting as the heavies in each conference--the Colts and Broncos in the AFC, and Seahawks and Bears in the NFC--enter the fray. Even after playing an extra game, the winners from this week will be more than a handful for the top seeds on each side, so there should be no letdown. Potential matchups such as Colts-Steelers, Broncos-Patriots, Seahawks-Redskins, and Bears-Giants would all be hugely entertaining.

Picking teams to reach and win the big game this year is tough, as there are a lot of variables and wildcard issues in this year's scenario. The Colts, who have backed into the playoffs after their terrible loss to San Diego, have found their emotion and focus renewed (albeit tragically) by the death of coach Dungy's son, so expect them to be back in the hunt with a vengeance. The Seahawks, after so many years of being simply middling, are trying to prove that they are for real, once and for all. I believe that they are--they’ve been playing so well and so consistently across all positions that in the end they outclass almost everyone but the Colts. I think these are the two teams we'll see in the Super Bowl, and I expect that both will acquit themselves admirably--no Philadelphia-style breakdowns.

The Seahawks are at long last good enough to win it, but unless we see something very different out of them in the next couple games, I think the Colts ultimately have what it takes this year, and will win it all.

Labels: Sport